000 AGXX40 KNHC 160648 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 148 AM EST FRI FEB 16 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT NOW LIES ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE GULF WATERS...STRETCHING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE SRNMOST BAY OF CAMPECHE AND POISED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE EDGE OF THE 2356 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CUT ACROSS THE SW GULF ZONE...SO ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED THE PASS STILL DOES SHOW WINDS TO 35 KT AND CONFIRMS THE GALE WARNING IN EFFECT. GFS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INDICATE THAT WINDS COULD STILL HOVER AROUND 35 KT OVER THE FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE MORNING...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND ALLOW THE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT 12 UTC DUE TO MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS SE THROUGH SAT...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON. WLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15-20 KT SAT AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY TO 20-25 KT BY SAT EVENING AND UP TO 30 KT SAT NIGHT. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS SHIFTS S BY SUN MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OUT OF THE AREA BY SUN EVENING. THE TRICKY PART OF THE FCST IS HOW HIGH THE WINDS WILL GET SUN MORNING OVER THE N/CNTRL AND E GULF. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MAXIMA OF 30 KT...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES SHOW A 20% PROBABILITY OF GALES OVER THE E GULF ZONE SUN 12 UTC. FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL HOLD OFF ON HOISTING THE GALE AND WOULD RATHER SEE MORE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUNS...AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES FROM THE ENSEMBLE. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRES SKIRTS ALONG THE GULF COAST LATE SUN AND MON WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE W PART ON MON AND TUE. SW N ATLC... A PARADE OF COLD FRONTS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE W ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING THE WIND/SEA CONDITIONS QUITE VOLATILE. CURRENTLY...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM 30N65W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LIES ALONG 31N W OF 70W. WINDS ARE RATHER SUBDUED AT THE MOMENT BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TODAY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BY AFTERNOON N OF 25N. AT THIS POINT IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH GALE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE ENTIRE FRONTAL COMPLEX MOVES E TODAY AND SAT AND WINDS DIE OFF BELOW 20 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SOME LINGERING SWELL. SW/W WINDS INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE N PART SAT EVENING WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE COAST SAT NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING WINDS GALES TO BEGIN LATE SAT NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH MON AFTERNOON...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS TO 40 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON MON WITH LEFTOVER WINDS CONFINED TO THE NE AND SE CORNERS OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NE INTO THE ATLC ON TUE...THERE WILL STILL BE A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS MAINLY S OF 24N ACROSS THE SRN BAHAMAS TO N OF PUERTO RICO. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED UP OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING...INCLUDING THE COLOMBIAN WINDS WHICH ARE NEAR 20 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS MORNING AND MOVE SE...STALLING FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE SAT MORNING. UNTIL THEN...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE N 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THEN DIE OFF. THE SECOND COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT/SUN WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO 20-25 KT AND PUSH THE FIRST FRONT FARTHER SE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NICARAGUA ON MON AND BECOME DIFFUSE ON TUE. BY MON...WINDS OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W WILL BE N/NE 20-25 KT WITH THE GRADIENT ALSO INCREASES WINDS OFF COLOMBIA TO 30 KT. E OF THE ISLANDS...THE TRADES WILL BE IN CONTROL UNTIL THE SAME COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE MON MORNING THEN STALLS FROM 21N55W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE N/NE 20-25 KT N OF THE BOUNDARY WITH 8-13 FT NW SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE W ATLC. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG