000 AGXX40 KNHC 151835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AS STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGES S DOWN THE NE MEXICO COAST THE NLY GRADIENT HAS NOW LIKELY STRENGTHENED TO MARGINAL GALE FORCE ACROSS THE SW GULF W OF 94W AS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM 42002. THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III WITH SEAS IN THE LOW TEENS OVER THIS AREA LOOKS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE SEAS WELL. THE 12Z GFS/NAM/GEM HAVE ALL INITIALIZED THIS GALE AREA WELL AND PER THESE MDLS STILL EXPECT THIS GRADIENT TO WEAKEN TO SUBGALE BY FRI MORNING AS PER THE LATEST OFFSHORE FORECAST. THEN AS ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS FORECAST HIGH PRES TO BUILD INTO THE NW GULF LATE FRI...THEN WEAKEN AND PASS SE ACROSS THE WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT EXPECT LIGHT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE WATERS. THE 12Z MODELS THEN REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN SWEEP SE ACROSS THE REMAINING WATERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. IN THE POST FRONTAL GRADIENT THE 12Z GFS FORECASTS A N-NWLY GRADIENT WITH PRIMARILY 25 OR 30 KT MAXIMUM BOUNDARLY LAYER WINDS. BUT WITH ALL OF THE OTHER 12Z MODELS FORECASTING STRONGER HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AM CONCERNED THAT THE 12Z GFS IS PERHAPS FORECASTING TOO WEAK A GRADIENT AND THAT GALES COULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE GULF. BUT FOR NOW WITH THE OTHER 12Z MODELS ALSO GENERALLY FORECASTING PRIMARILY 25 TO 30 KT POST FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST 25-30 KT WINDS DEVELOPING SAT INTO SUN. THEN AFTER HIGH PRES PASSES JUST N OF THE AREA LATE SUN INTO MON WITH DECREASING CONDITIONS...SE RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO SET UP LATE MON INTO TUE BUT PER THE 12Z MODELS PLAN ON FORECASTING PRIMARILY 15-20 KT (OR 15-25 KT AT MOST) WINDS IN THIS RETURN FLOW. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDIG FROM 30N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS CURRENTLY HAS AT MOST 20 OR 25 KT WINDS IN ITS IMMEDIATE VICINITY. THE 12Z MODELS ALL FORECAST A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION TO PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WHILE IT DRIFTS ONLY SLOWLY SE. SIMILAR TO ITS PREVIOUS RUNS THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SMALL AREA OF SWLY PREFRONTAL GALE FORCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NE PORTION BY FRI MORNING. WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST INDICATING NO CHANCE OF GALES OVER THIS AREA AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GEM/UKMET/NOGAPS SHOWING NO GALE FORCE BOUNDARLY LAYER WINDS... PLAN ON KEEPING CONDITIONS SUBGALE ALONG THE LINES OF THE CURRENT FCST. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL BE A STRONGER COLD FRONT FORECAST BY ALL OF THE 12Z MODELS TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA SUN INTO MON. WITH THE 12Z GFS REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RESPECTIVE RUNS...AND SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GEM/UKMET...SEE NO REASON TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GALE WARNINGS IN PLACE FOR THE N PORTION SUN INTO MON. THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III CONTINUES TO FORECAST SEAS BUILDING INTO THE LOW 20S OVER THE FAR NE PORTION MON SO DO NOT PLAN ON ALTERING THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SEAS MUCH EITHER. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE 12Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT OVER THIS AREA. PER THE 12Z GFS STILL EXPECT E-NE TRADES UP TO 25 KT TO PERSIST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH SAT. TWO COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI AND SUN PER THE 12Z GFS STILL LOOK TO HAVE MAXIMUM 20-25 KT POST FRONTAL WINDS. SO OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THESE WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 94W...GMZ082. FORECASTER VUKITS