000 AGXX40 KNHC 150635 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EST THU FEB 15 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WIND/SEA FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS HINGES PRIMARILY ON THE BEHAVIOR OF TWO COLD FRONTS WHICH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THE FIRST FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA AND HAS BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE WRN GULF...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. HIGH PRES OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL PLUNGE SWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE MOVE TODAY. THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR MARGINAL GALES TO BEGIN THIS MORNING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND LIKELY LAST THROUGH FRI MORNING. FOR THE SEAS...I WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAN ON THE SIDE OF THE UKMET WAVE MODEL AND FORECAST SEAS TO BUILD TO 15 FT BY THE TIME THE WINDS JUST BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON FRI MORNING. THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI AS HIGH PRES SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP N OF 27N SAT AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST...THEN TURN NWLY AND INCREASE TO 25-30 KT OVER THE NE AND N/CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS NOT ADVERTISING ANY CHANCE OF GALES BEHIND THE FRONT SO WILL LEAVE THE PREVIOUS FCST PACKAGE GENERALLY UNCHANGED. WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN ON SUN WITH HIGH PRES SKIRTING ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL ALSO CAUSE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY MON. WILL BUMP WINDS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR W GULF FOR MON IN ACCORDANCE WITH GFS/ECMWF/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT IS NOW OVER THE W ATLC WATERS FROM 31N69W TO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SW WINDS 20-25 KT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY...IN LINE WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. WINDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING FOR NOW...BUT A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SETTING UP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SETTLE ALONG 31N THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING WLY WINDS TO ITS S. EXPECT SW/W WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY THIS EVENING N OF 27N THEN INCREASE TO 30 KT FRI AFTERNOON. THE GFS ENSEMBLE DOES INDICATE A 20% CHANCE OF GALES OVER THE NE PART OF THE ZONE FOR ONE TIME STEP FRI EVENING...BUT A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS MODELS IS MUCH MORE SUBDUED SO SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT FCST. THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE SE PART ON SAT WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW 20 KT AT LEAST OVER THE E PART. THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO RESPITE HOWEVER AS W WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NW PART SAT AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GALES BEGINNING N OF 28N SUN MORNING THEN SPREADING E AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MON AFTERNOON. PEAK PROBABILITY FOR GALES IS 50% AND OCCURS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER GFS WINDS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 35+ KT WINDS AND EVEN A 50 KT BARB SUN EVENING...I FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN INCREASING MAXIMUM WINDS TO 40 KT FOR SUN. HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE W PART ON MON WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS SHIFTING E. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NO MAJOR ISSUES SHOWING UP IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FCST. WINDS TO 20 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH POSSIBLY A FEW PERIODS OF SUSTAINED 25 KT. WINDS ALSO FLIRT AROUND 20 KT OVER THE S PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS UNTIL MON WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PUSHED E. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI WITH N/NE WINDS 20-25 KT WITHIN A NARROW BAND BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING ON SAT. REINFORCING HIGH PRES AND THE SECOND FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AGAIN TO 20-25 KT SUN MORNING THEN SHIFT S TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA SUN EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SE. BY MON A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA W OF 72W IS UNDER WINDS 20-25 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 94W...GMZ082. FORECASTER BERG