000 AGXX40 KNHC 141831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST WED FEB 14 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA SW TO NE MEXICO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT WHICH WERE CONFIRMED BY AN EARLIER 1154Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED WELL BY THE 12Z GFS/NAM. HIGHEST REPORTED SEAS ARE UP TO 6-9 FT OVER THE NW GULF WHICH ARE BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III. OVER THE SHORT TERM...AS ALL OF THE NEW 12Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING STRONG HIGH PRES TO RIDGE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...THE 12Z GFS/NAM/GEM ALL CONTINUE TO FORECAST GALE FORCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW GULF LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. THEREFORE SEE NO REASON TO ALTER THE CURRENT WARNINGS. THEN THE 12Z MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OFFSHORE FRI INTO SAT WITH DECREASING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THEN THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SE ACROSS THE GULF LATE SAT INTO SUN. IN THE POSTFRONTAL GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF THE 12Z GFS/GEM ARGUE FOR MARGINAL NW GALES DEVELOPING WHILE THE 12Z NOGAPS/UKMET FORECAST SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENTS. SO FOR NOW WL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST 25-30 KT WINDS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT LATER JUSTIFYING WARNINGS HERE. SW N ATLC... PER THE 12Z GFS AND NWW3 EXPECT THE AREA OF S-SE GALES WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT NOW NEAR 31N66W TO LIFT N OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES SE INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT EXPECT WINDS TO VEER TO NW INITIALLY TO 20 TO 25 KT PER THE 12Z GFS... THEN DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY THU. THEN LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE 12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FORECAST ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE WATERS...PER THE 12Z GFS EXPECT THE W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE 25-30 KT ACROSS N PORTION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEN ON SUN...THE 12Z GFS/GEM/UKMET REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH W-NW GALES DEVELOPING N OF 27N SUN AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...THEN BECOMING LIMITED TO THE FAR NE WATERS MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BESIDES THE NORMALLY STRONG ELY TRADES FORECASTED...EXCEPT HIGHER NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST...THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT FEATURES EXPECTED WILL BE COLD FRONTS PUSHING INTO THE NW PORTIONS FRI/FRI NIGHT AND THEN LATE SUN INTO MON. PER THE 12Z GFS PLAN ON CONTINUING TO FORECAST NLY WINDS UP TO 20 OR 25 KT BEHIND THESE FRONTS. SO OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE PREVIOUS OFFSHORE FORECAST PACKAGE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 27N SUN...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 94W THU INTO THU NIGHT...GMZ082 FORECASTER VUKITS