000 AGXX40 KNHC 140638 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 138 AM EST WED FEB 14 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT MOVED INTO THE NW GULF WATERS DURING THE DAY AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO FAR NE MEXICO...MOVING SE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS PER A 0048 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND HIGHEST REPORTED SEAS ARE 6 FT AT 42019...IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FCST. THE FRONT SAGS S TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD SHIFTING W OF 90W...THEN THE BOUNDARY BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY MOMENTARILY TONIGHT. REINFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD OVER THE WRN GULF ON THU WITH WIND FUNNELING COMMENCING NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES WITH THIS EPISODE YET GFS BOUNDARY LAYER GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS WINDS TO 35 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST MAINLY THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL GUIDANCE TOTALLY SCRAPS THIS SCENARIO. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES SE OF THE GULF WATERS EARLY FRI WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. HIGH PRES TAKES UP THE REAR OVER THE NRN GULF FRI AND SAT WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS. WLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE NRN GULF LATE SAT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...THEN SHIFT N AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT S ON SUN WITH WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE MOST OF THE AREA. SW N ATLC... DEEPENING LOW PRES NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST HAS STRENGTHENED THE WIND FIELD OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS N OF 24N. WHILE THE EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS SUFFERED FROM A LOT OF RAIN-FLAGGED VECTORS...MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SE WINDS 20-30 KT IN A SWATH JUST NE OF A PSEUDO WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO 26N69W...AND WINDS VEERING SW/W 20-25 KT IN THE WARM SECTOR N OF 26N W OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT INCREASE BY SUNRISE TO GALE FORCE BUT THEN ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE E OF THE OFFSHORE ZONE BY THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE COAST THIS MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO NW...AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO 14 FT IN W/NW SWELL BY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON THU EVEN AS THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SE FROM 31N63W TO WRN CUBA BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE N PART AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT/HIGH PRES MOVE SE OFF THE COAST...WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING TO 25N65W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SAT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS SLIGHT 10-30% CHANCE OF GALES N OF 29N ON FRI BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING GALES SINCE THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE A THIRD TIME OVER THE NW PART ON SAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST SUN MORNING. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW UP TO 40% CHANCE OF GALES EVEN AT 5 DAYS FROM NOW...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GALES HERE AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... COMPARED TO THE FCST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC WATERS...THE FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN WATERS IS MOSTLY A BREEZE...NO PUN INTENDED. THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA IS ALREADY RELAXING AND QUIKSCAT SHOWED WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THESE CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN STATUS QUO THROUGH SUN. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ON FRI AND INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE N AT 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT STALLS FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS SAT AND SUN WITH N/NE WINDS 20 KT LYING NW OF THE BOUNDARY. E OF THE ISLANDS...WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE TRADES. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SLIGHT HIGH BIAS WITH SWELLS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS FROM THE E...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS FNMOC GUIDANCE WHEN WINDS ARE NOT A FACTOR. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 69W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG