000 AGXX40 KNHC 131842 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EST TUE FEB 13 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE NEW 12Z FCST MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN FCSTG A COLD FRONT...NOW ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF...TO PUSH SE TONIGHT AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE S GULF LATE WED/WED NIGHT. PER THE 12Z GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PLAN ON CONTINUING TO FCST MAX N-NW WINDS POSTFRONTAL WINDS UP TO 20 OR 25 KT AS PREVIOUSLY FCST. THEN AS THE 12Z MODELS FCST STRONG HIGH PRES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW THU...THE 12Z GFS/GEM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE STILL FCST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE OVER THE WRN SW GULF LATE THU INTO THU EVENING SO PLAN ON CONTINUING THE GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE 12Z GFS/GEM FCST POST FRONTAL GALE FORCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NRN GULF THEN WHILE THE 12Z UKMET FCSTS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENT. AT THE MOMENT AM INCLINED TO FCST POSSIBLE GALES THEN BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE THE COMPLETE 12Z ECMWF BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION. SW N ATLC... THE NEW 12Z MDLS CONTINUE TO FCST DEVELOPING LOW PRES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT WITH AN ASCD WARM FRONT LIFTING NE ACROSS THE WATERS AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET/GEM ALL FCST S-SE GALE FORCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH MORE MARGINAL GALE FORCE WLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THEREFORE WITH A RELATIVELY HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PLAN ON CONTINUING WITH THE GALE WARNINGS FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFSHORE FCST PACKAGE. THE 12Z GFS/GEM THEN FCST ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE WATERS FRI WITH MARGINAL GALE FORCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DEVELOPING MAINLY N OF 28N. THE 12Z NAM/UKMET THOUGH FCST SLIGHTLY WEAKER GRADIENTS ASCD WITH THIS FRONT SO FOR NOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUSLY FCST 25-30 KT WINDS FCST WITH THE FRONT. THEN ON SUN THE 12Z GFS FCSTS AN EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS WITH 40-50 KT 30M BOUDNARY LAYER WINDS FCST TO DVLP ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N. THEREFORE WL LIKELY FCST POSSIBLE GALES ACROSS THE N WATERS SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN EARLIER 1040 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED TRADE WINDS TO 30 KT STILL PERSIST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...WITH TRADE WINDS STILL UP TO 25 KT AS FAR N AS 17N AND WITH THE 12Z GFS FCSTG LITTLE CHANGE EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE N FCST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FCST THE TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH WED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (20-25 KT) STILL REMAINING LIMITED TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST WED THROUGH SUN. PER THE 12Z GFS...STILL EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE NW WATERS FRI NIGHT INTO SUN WITH NLY WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 27N...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING W OF 94W...GMZ082. FORECASTER VUKITS