000 AGXX40 KNHC 121847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST MON FEB 12 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A GENERALLY LIGHT...10-20 KT...E-SE GRADIENT PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF AT THE MOMENT...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WHICH IS INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL BY THE 12Z GFS. HIGHEST SEAS IN THE GULF ARE UP TO 5-7 FT ACROSS THE NW PORTION WHICH ARE RUNNING SOME 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN FCST BY THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AT THE MOMENT...SO WILL ADJUST ITS FCST SEAS HERE ACCORDINGLY OVER THE SHORT TERM. OVER THE SHORT TERM...VERY WEAK LOW PRES NOW OVER THE SE GULF IS FCST BY THE 12Z GFS TO EJECT NE ACROSS S FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH MAX ASSOCIATED WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THE 12Z GFS THEN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RESPECTIVE RUNS IN FCSTG A COLD FRONT TO PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE NW GULF TUE MORNING...CONTINUE SE LATER TUE/TUE NIGHT...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE FAR S GULF WED/WED NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO FCST PRIMARILY A MAX 20 OR 25 KT N-NW GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT THRU WED NIGHT SO ANTICIPATE MAKING ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE PREVIOUS OFFSHORE FCST. THEN THE 12Z GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FCSTG A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THU WITH NLY 25-30 KT 10M WINDS FCST ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF W OF 90W...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z NAM. THEN ON SAT THE 12Z GFS FCSTS ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE GULF WITH GALE...OR NEAR GALE...10M WINDS FCST IN ITS WAKE. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN GEM SUPPORT THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION OF POSSIBLE GALES...BUT WITH THIS BEING DAY 5 FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 25-30 KT AND SEE LATER IF SUBSEQUENT RUNS REMAIN CONSISTENT IS SUPPORTING GALES. SW N ATLC... THE WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH THE WESTERN END BCMG AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT WITH CONVECTION. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FCSTG THE WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO LIFT NEAR ACRS THE WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT PULLING THIS FRONT NEWD. BELIEVE THE 12Z GFS MAY STILL BE HAVING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND IS FCSTG TOO STRONG A SURFACE LOW SINCE NO OTHER 12Z MODEL IS AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS. THEREFORE PLAN ON GNRLY ACCEPTING THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION BUT WILL ANTICIPATE A WEAKER LOW WITH MAX ASCD WINDS UP TO 25 OR 30 KT AS PREVLY FCSTD. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN FCST TO ENTER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WED AND EXTEND FROM 30N72W TO S FLORIDA BY WED EVENING AND FROM 30N62W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THU EVENING. PER THE 12Z GFS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVLY FCSTD 25 TO 30 KT MAX WINDS. THE 12Z GFS CONTS TO FCST A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR FRI WITH NEAR GALE FORCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BUT FOR NOW WL CONT WITH 25-30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN EARLIER 1106 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED TRADE WINDS UP TO 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHICH THE 12Z GFS HAS INITIALIZED TOO WEAK BY SOME 5-10 KT. ELSEWHERE A SOLID AREA OF 15-25 KT TRADES EXTEND ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 80W. VERSUS ITS PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS...THE 12Z GFS IS NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN WEAKENING THESE TRADES. SINCE THE MODEL INITIALIZED TOO WEAK HAVE NO PROBLEM THEN IN NOW FCSTG LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT SPEEDS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW SHOULD WEAKEN THE WINDS SLIGHTLY STARTING WED NIGHT. AFTER STALLING THE FRONT NW OF THE AREA THU...THE 12Z GFS THEN FCSTS THE FRONT TO PUSH SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI MORNING AND THEN PUSH SE TO A LINE FROM THE ERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO BELIZE BY LATE SAT. STIL EXPECT MAX N-NE WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS IN THE FAVORED FUNNELING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER VUKITS