000 AGXX40 KNHC 120635 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 AM EST MON FEB 12 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... INCREASING SE RETURN FLOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH SEVERAL PLATFORMS REPORTING 20 KT WINDS. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS ARE RATHER TRANQUIL. SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS APPEARS TO BE LIFTING NWD IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL GULF. GFS HINTS AT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE MODEL. FOR NOW WILL NOT INDICATE A SFC LOW. IN ANY EVENT THE ONLY NET EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AS THIS FEATURE PASSES OFF TO THE NE EARLY TUE. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR NW TUE WHICH SWEEPS RAPIDLY SEWD AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY WED AND SE OF THE AREA BY THU. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ENSUES THU WITH AN INCREASE IN NLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF W OF 90W. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE FRI. ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS HINTS AT GALES IN THE SW GULF...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN PROBABILITIES ARE ONLY IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE SO WILL NOT MENTION GALES AT THIS TIME AND INDICATE NLY WINDS 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS THU INTO FRI FOR THIS AREA. SW N ATLC... RATHER WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT BECOMING ACTIVE IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER THE GULF ABOVE. GFS INDICATES THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ON TUE AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WED AND THU. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THIS SOLUTION IS SHARED ONLY WITH THE LOWER RESOLUTION NOGAPS...WILL NOT INDICATE A SFC LOW AT THIS TIME BUT RATHER MOVE THE WARM FRONT NWD W OF 70W LATE TUE INTO WED. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ECMWF/UKMET DO NOT INDICATE A SFC LOW. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC/MID ATLC COAST ON WED ENSURES BROAD FETCH OF INCREASING SWLY WINDS N OF 25N WITH WINDS 20-30 KT. ALL THE RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER N WITH THE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS AND THUS LESSENING THE CHANCES FOR GALES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA LATE WED AND THU BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE ALSO TRENDED LOWER AS WELL TO 20-30 PCT. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WED AND EXTENDS FROM 30N70W TO S FLORIDA BY WED EVENING AND FROM 28N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY THU EVENING. A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FRI AND INCREASES NWLY WINDS TO 20-30 KT OVER MOST AREAS N OF 25N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 2222 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES AREA OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE SRN CARIBBEAN WITH THE PASS MISSING THE HIGHEST WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE 20 KT TRADES REACH THEIR MAXIMUM AREAL EXTENT TODAY THEN GRADUALLY SHRINK TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN IN THE FACE OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE SW N ATLC. SUBNORMAL TRADES EXPECTED OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS A COLD FRONT WHICH IS SLATED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY FRI AND EXTEND FROM E-CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE BY LATE FRI. N- NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS IN THE FAVORED FUNNELING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB