000 AGXX40 KNHC 100741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT FEB 10 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PUSHED OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST YESTERDAY MORNING...AND CURRENTLY EXETNDS FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY SW TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. BUOYS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE REPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES A LINE FROM SW FLORIDA TO EXTREME S TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATES SE OF THE AREA SUN MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN GULF. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...WIND AND SEA STATE CONDITIONS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS WEAK HIGH HIGH PRES PREVAILS E OF THE FRONT. BUOYS OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF ARE REPORTING NE-E WINDS OF 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT S OF 27N...WHILE VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT SEAS OF 1 FT ARE SEEN N OF 27N. THE HIGH THAT BUILDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE GULF TUE. RETURN FLOW...WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS...SETS UP OVER THE WRN GULF MON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE TEXAS COAST. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO A PSN FROM THE APALACHEE BAY TO THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE...AND BECOME ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG 24N ON WED. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TUE WITH N WINDS OF 20 KT AND OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF WED WITH WINDS N-NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. WINDS BECOME NE AND 15-20 KT OVER THE NW GULF WED. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WED...WINDS BECOME NE-E 10-15 KT W OF 87W AND NW-N 15-20 KT E OF 87W WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT. 00 UTC NWW3 GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT LOOKS OKAY WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GULF. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FORECAST. SW N ATLC... BOTH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PAST FEW HOURS ARE REPORTING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SE PART OF THE AREA NEAR 25N65W AND EXETNDS SW TO NEAR 23N66W WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING TROUGH TO THE NE SECTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE TROUGH DISSIPATES TONIGHT ...WHILE THE COLD FRONT PORTION MOVES E OF THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N79W TO 29N76W AND WNW ACROSS N FLORIDA WILL MOVE TO ALONG 30N65W TO 28N77W TONIGHT...AND TO E OF THE AREA BY SUN MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF W-NW 15-20 KT WINDS TODAY INTO EARLY SUN MORNING OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN MON INTO TUE MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SUGGESTED BY NWP MODELS. THE HIGH THEN RETREATS E OF THE AREA LATER TUE INTO WED AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG A PSN FROM 31N76W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TUE...AND FROM 31N68W TO FLORIDA CENTRAL LATE WED. STRONG SLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT N OF 27N TUE AND WED...AND W-NW 20-25 KT WINDS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT WED. LATEST NWW3 VALID 00 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATES SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE N OF 27N W OF 72W...5-6 FT S OF 27N E OF THE BAHAMAS...2-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND 6-8 FT IN LINGERING N SWELL N OF 27N E OF 72W OVER THE NE PART BY SUN BUT SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT ON MON...AND BUILDING LATE OVER THE NW CORNER ON TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST HAVE DECREASED TO 15-20 KT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEAKENS. THE WINDS HERE THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN THROUGH TUE AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS E-W ACROSS THE ATLC. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT...UP TO 6 FT OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TRADES ARE RATHER LIGHT IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE FROM THE E-SE S OF 18N. THESE SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MON AND TUE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND BE CONFINED TO BETWEEN 69W-78W WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HIGH PRES TO THE N. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 18N MON AND TUE AND DECREASE SOME WED. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE