000 AGXX40 KNHC 090746 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST FRI FEB 09 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RATHER LIGHT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF ARE A RESULT OF A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER EXTREME SE LOUISIANA. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS TO BE E-SE IN THE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT OVER THE WRN GULF S OF 27N AND 1-2 FT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THERE STILL IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA N TO 27N86W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WWD AS IT DISSIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS FRI MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN REACH A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 27N97W BY FRI NIGHT...AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SAT. LATEST GFS RUN INCREASES N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TO 20 KT BEGINNING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THIS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED IN EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS. STRONG RETURN FLOW WITH S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WILL BE OVER THE WRN GULF W OF SUN AND MON IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO E TEXAS MON AND OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE MORNING. SLY WINDS DECREASE OVER THE NW GULF TUE...BUT INCREASE OVER THE N/CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF TUE AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES A PSN FROM APALACHEE BAY TO THEW WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TUE WITH N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS. 00 UTC NWW3 GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT LOOKS OKAY WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GULF. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FORECAST. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING TROUGH...REMNANTS OF PREVIOUS COLD FRONT...EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PAST FEW HOURS ARE REPORTING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT FROM 30N65W TO 29N77W WILL MOVE TO A LINE FROM 28N65W TO 24N73W THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE SE PART OF THE AREA AS WEAKENING TROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BE PRESENT W OF THE FRONT THROUGH SAT MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON...AND SLIDE TO E OF THE AREA BY SUN MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF W-NW 20 KT WINDS SAT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN MON AND TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CORNER TUE WHERE WINDS BECOME SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN ADVANCE OF YET THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE RIDGE RETREATS TO THE CENTRAL ATLC. LATEST NWW3 VALID 00 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATES SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE N OF 27N W OF 72W...5-6 FT S OF 27N E OF THE BAHAMAS...2-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND 6-8 FT IN LINGERING N SWELL N OF 27N E OF 72W OVER THE NE PART BY SUN BUT SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT ON MON...AND BUILDING LATE OVER THE NW CORNER ON TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST HAVE DECREASED TO 15-20 KT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEAKENS. THE WINDS HERE THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN THROUGH TUE AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS E-W ACROSS THE ATLC. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT...UP TO 6 FT OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TRADES ARE RATHER LIGHT IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE FROM THE E-SE S OF 18N. THESE SPEEDS WILL CONTIUNUE THROUGH SUN...THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT MON AND TUE AND OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HIGH PRES TO THE N. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 19N MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE