000 AGXX40 KNHC 080718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST THU FEB 08 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SE PART NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE FOUND. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0000 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED A SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA N TO 26N87W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND E OF IT. HIGH PRES OF 1023 MB ANALYZED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28.5N84W CONTROLS THE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 3-6 FT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE E AND WEAKEN TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE NW GULF COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRI. WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE N-NE IN THE 10-15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NE-E LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT AND VEERING TO SE-S 10-15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF AND E-SE 10-15 KT OVER THE E GULF ON SUN AND MON. STRONG RETURN FLOW WITH S WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BE OVER THE WRN GULF W OF 93W MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO E TEXAS AND HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE WRN WITH A RIDGE W TO THE E GULF. 00 UTC NWW3 GUIDANCE FROM LAST NIGHT LOOKS OKAY WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GULF. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THIS FORECAST. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT 23N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PAST FEW HOURS ARE REPORTING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRES 0F 1022 MB JUST ENE OF WEST PALM BEACH BEGINS TO BUILD SEWD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2222 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED SW WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG 32N BETWEEN 70W-77W WHICH IS QUICKLY DROPPING SEWD. LARGE RESIDUAL N SWELL OF UP TO 10 FT OVER THE NE PART WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT ALONG 32N WILL BRUSH THE NE PART OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE RAPIDLY MOVING E OF THE AREA. NWW3 INDICATES SEAS BUILDING UP TO 11 FT ALONG 31N TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CHURNS UP THE WATERS N OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BUMP UP SEAS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER HIGHER FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AM ALREADY SEEING 12 FT AND GREATER SEAS UPSTREAM FROM THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THESE VALUES MOVE INTO THE NE PART OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SWELL DIRECTION COMING FROM THE NW. ELSEWHERE S OF 25N WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS FROM 25N-28N DUE TO THE 1022 MB HIGH NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON AND REACHES A LINE ROUGHLY FROM 31N74W TO 28N80W LATE FRI NIGHT...AND MOVES INTO THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA AS DISSIPATING FRONT SAT AFTERNOON... AND BECOMES INTO SUN MORNING. MODELS SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUN AND GOING INTO MON AS HIGH PRES SETTLES ALONG 28N. LATEST NWW3 VALID 00 UTC LAST NIGHT INDICATES SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE N OF 27N W OF 72W...5-6 FT S OF 27N E OF THE BAHAMAS...2-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND 6-8 FT IN LINGERING N SWELL N OF 27N E OF 72W OVER THE NE PART BY SUN BUT SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT ON MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGHEST TRADES REMAIN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO 15-20 KT FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEAKENS. THE WINDS HERE THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATER SUN AND MON AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDS E-W ACROSS THE ATLC. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT...UP TO 6 FT OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SOME OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI...THEN BUILD AGAIN UP TO 10 FT AS ADVERTISED BY THE NWW3 ON SUN INTO MON. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TRADES ARE RATHER LIGHT (NE-E 10-15 KT)...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH SAT...BUT WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT SUN AND MON OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER HIGH PRES TO THE N. THIS INCREASE IS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE