000 AGXX40 KNHC 070734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST WED FEB 07 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR THE SE PART WHERE A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0030 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THESE WINDS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS MORNING. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA ARE SHOWING E-SE WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTH/CENTRAL PORTION...2-4 FT OVER THE FAR NW AND NE PORTIONS AND 6-9 FT GENERALLY S OF 27N. HIGH PRES EXTENDING E-W ALONG 28N WILL MOVE E THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS CONTINUING IN THE LIGHT RANGE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LATEST NWW3 GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF SEA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GULF. WILL STAY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE NE AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF BEFORE MOVING E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE FRI. HIGH PRES BUILDS THEN BUILDS SWD INTO THE GULF...BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS WITNESSED WITH RECENT POST-FRONTAL EVENTS. HOWEVER...WINDS AS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE E-SE IN THE 15-20 KT MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF SAT AND SUN IN RETURN FLOW AS THE HIGH SLIDES E OF THE GULF SUN. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 24N65W TO NEAR E CUBA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES E OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT DATA FROM NEAR 2300 UTC LAST ARE REPORTING NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT S OF 26N AND W OF THE COLD FRONT TO 77W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE NE FLORIDA MOVES SE AND WEAKENS THROUGH THU NIGHT. LARGE RESIDUAL N SWELL OF UP TO 10 FT OVER THE NE PART WILL ONLY SUBSIDE A LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN THU AND FRI. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT NOW POISED ALONG 31N E OF 74W WHICH WILL QUICKLY BRUSH THE NE PART OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT PRECEDED BY STRONG SW-W WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN A LARGE NW SWELL. NWW3 INDICATES SEAS BUILDING UP TO 13 FT ALONG 31N TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CHURNS UP THE WATERS N OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF 77W WINDS ARE NE 15-20 KT AND HAVE DIMINISHED TO NLY 10-15 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER DUE TO THE 1028 MB HIGH NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FRI AFTERNOON AND REACHES A LINE ROUGHLY FROM 31N67W TO 28N80W LATE FRI NIGHT...AND THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 24N65W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE SAT...THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE SUN. LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BUY SUN AS HIGH PRES SETTLES ALONG 28N. NWW3 INDICATES SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE N OF 27N W OF 70W...5-6 FT S OF 27N E OF THE BAHAMAS...2-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND 6-8 FT IN LINGERING N SWELL N OF 27N E OF 71W OVER THE NE PART BY SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGHEST TRADES REMAIN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE DECREASING TO 15-20 KT THROUGH SAT MORNING AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES E AND WEAKENS. THE WINDS HERE THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT LATER SAT AND SUN AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE PROTRUDES WWD INTO THE ATLC AND NRN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT...UP TO 6 FT OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 10 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SOME OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SAT MORNING THEN BUILD AGAIN UP TO 10 FT AS ADVERTISED BY THE NWW3 ON SUN. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TRADES ARE RATHER LIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH SUN...BUT MAY INCREASE SOME OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN TO THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH...THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT UNDER SW N ATLC...LINGERS ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN SEA FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH MAINLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE