000 AGXX40 KNHC 060730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST TUE FEB 06 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS CONTINUE ON THE RATHER STRONG SIDE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E GULF WATERS AS SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW NE 25-30 KT N WINDS OVER THIS PORTION OF THE GULF BUT MAINLY NOW CONFINED TO S OF 26N. SEAS HERE ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE 8-13 FT RANGE WITH HIGHEST WITHIN ABOUT 120-150 NM N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 00Z NWW3 GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD SEAS OF UP TO 15 FT HERE INITIALLY. BELIEVE THIS MAY BE OVERDONE SOME AS AREA OF MAXIMUM HEIGHTS HAS DIMINISH SINCE MON AFTERNOON. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM LAST NIGHT INDICATED SEAS OF 11-16 FT WITHIN THIS SAME AREA. HOWEVER...THIS SEEMS RATHER HIGH AND COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO CONTAMINATION OF THE PASS DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. WILL FOLLOW NWW3 TREND OF DIMINISHING SEAS FOR THIS FORECAST. THE CURRENT WIND AND SEAS CONDITIONS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF ARE DUE TO A STRONG AND PERSISTENT PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THE INTERACTION OF STRONG 1032 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA WWD TO ALONG THE NRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND DROPS SWD INTO THE E BAY BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND SEAS TO DECREASE. THE NEXT COLD WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE FRI OR SAT MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD INTO THE NE PART OF THE GULF SAT. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO 25N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN SW ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A SECONDARY AND FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXETNDS IN A PSN FROM 31N71W TO WEST PALM BEACH LATER THIS MORNING ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY 28N86W TO CENTRAL CUBA THIS MORNING. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING NE WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 KT SW OF THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS STRONG HIGH PRES FROM THE SE U.S. BUILDS SEWD INTO THE WRN ATLC BEHIND THE SECOND COLD FRONT. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY AND WED AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES SE AND WEAKENS. THERE WILL BE A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT GENERALLY S OF 25N W OF 72W TODAY...THEN DECREASING TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT THROUGH WED AND TO 10-15 KT WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND STATIONARY FROM ABOUT 26N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE TUE. A WEAKER COLD FRONT OR FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST FRI AND REACH A LINE FROM 27N65W TO E CUBA FRI NIGHT THEN WEAKEN OVER THE SE PART OF THE AREA SAT. GFS STILL PICKS UP ON A WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG THE FRONT FRI AND RIDING NE EXITING THE AREA SAT. WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING THIS LOW IN THE FORECAST...AS WILL BE BEST TO WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE. GFS SUGGESTS THAT YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PART SAT FOLLOWED BY MODERATE TO STRONG NW FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NE TRADES NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST HAVE DECREASE TO 20-25 KT AND ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT BY SAT AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SLIDES SE AND WEAKENS THROUGH SAT. THIS ALSO WILL MAINTAIN RATHER WEAK ELY TRADES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH SAT. A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FRI NIGHT...AND EXTEND E-W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR BELIZE SAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR THIS FEATURE FRI AND SAT WITH TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC RUNNING IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT...UP TO 6 FT OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE