000 AGXX40 KNHC 050711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 EST MON FEB 05 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. .GULF OF MEXICO... SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW 25 TO 30 KT NE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL TO SW GULF...ON THE PERIPHERY OF 1029 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL CLIP THE NE GULF WATERS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG ELY WINDS OVER SRN GULF WATERS THROUGH TUE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH STARTING WED AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NRN GULF WATERS BY LATE WEEK. .CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADES FROM THE TROP N ATLC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS TO THE N. LARGE SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER TROP N ATLC WATERS. .SW N ATLC... SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING UP TO 30 KT NLY WINDS OVER NRN BAHAMIAN WATERS...BETWEEN A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE S AND A COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE SE COAST. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE NRN BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS TO THE N THROUGH TODAY. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TODAY...AND EXTEND FROM 28N65W TO 23N80W BY THIS EVENING. RIDGE AXIS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND EXTEND ALONG 29N ON BY TUE. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND STATIONARY FROM 26N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE TUE. ELY FLOW WILL WEAKEN FOR ALL BUT THE CENTRAL BAHAMIAN WATERS BY LATE TUE AS WELL. LITE PRES PATTERN WILL FOLLOW WED INTO THU AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. A WEAKER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST THU...EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO 26N80W BY LATE THU. GFS SPINS UP A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE E OF THE BAHAMAS AND SHUNTS IT NE. WILL FAVOR UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF HINTING OF A WEAKER LOW OR TROUGH. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN