000 AGXX40 KNHC 030717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST SAT FEB 03 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W TO BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SWLY AHEAD OF A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ERN PACIFIC OFF BAJA. LACKING UPPER SUPPORT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SWD. BY THIS EVENING...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY AHEAD OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE W COAST AND INTO THE ROCKIES...CUTTING OFF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO. THE RESULTING CONTINUED SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF WILL HOLD A REINFORCING COLD FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND INDUCE THE EXISTING FRONT IN THE GULF TO BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER E TEXAS WILL SHIFT SE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE TOMORROW AHEAD OF THE STALLING REINFORCING FRONT. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND ALLOW STRONG NELY WINDS OVER SRN GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...AS WINDS DIMINISH OVER NRN WATERS. THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL CLIP THE NE GULF MON NIGHT INTO TUE. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF AS THE FOLLOWING HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE AREA IN ALL BUT THE EXTREME SW CORNER. QUIKSCAT HINTS OF 30 KT CONDITIONS NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE N. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO 26N80W. FRESH SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SE AND EXTEND FROM 31N69W TO 24N81W BY THIS EVENING...31N62W TO 24N81W SUN MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOW FURTHER ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON...EXTENDING FROM 31N60W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE BAHAMAS AS A REINFORCING FRONT EMERGES OFF THE SE COAST LATE MON/EARLY TUE. THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO 28N881W TUE MORNING...WITH THE SRN FRONT STALLED...AND A WEAK RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN THEM ALONG 28N. THE REINFORCING WILL MERGE WITH THE STALLED SRN FRONT ON TUE...AND EXTEND FROM 31N58W TO 25N65W TO 22N77W BY WED MORNING. STRONG NWLY WILL FOLLOW THE REINFORCING FRONT N OF 28N MON AND TUE...WITH LINGERING NWLY SWELL PROPAGATING S THROUGH MID WEEK. ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN