000 AGXX40 KNHC 020655 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST FRI FEB 02 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1004 MB LOW PRES NOW NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT TO NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. BUOYS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS OVER THE ERN GULF. SO FAR...ONLY MODERATE NLY WINDS ARE EVIDENT N OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL SAG SWD TODAY...AND WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N97W BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN STALL FROM S FLORIDA TO 21N97W BY TONIGHT. MODERATE CAA WILL INCREASE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND SAT. MEANWHILE A REINFORCING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NRN GULF WATERS ON SAT. HOWEVER...IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W OVER BAJA AND NWRN MEXICO ON SAT WILL LIMIT THE UPPER SUPPORT TO THE SECOND FRONT AT LEAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. EXPECT SUPPORTING NW FLOW ALOFT TO COMMENCE ONLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS E THROUGH MEXICO AHEAD OF A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. THEREFORE...WILL BACK OFF TIMING OF GALE CONDITIONS IN SW GULF TO SUN...AND LOWER SAT NIGHT WINDS THERE TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG NELY WINDS TO LINGER OVER THE SRN GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. .CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE BOUNDARY LAYER RIDGE BUILDING TO THE N OF THE AREA OVER THE WRN ATLC...TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND INCREASING INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS N ATLC WATERS. STRONGEST WINDS ARE AS USUAL NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WINDS ARE ALSO SET TO INCREASE OVER FAR WRN CARIBBEAN IN WATERS N OF HONDURAS...BETWEEN FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRES TO THE E. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE GULF...BUT EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC AS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS. SW N ATLC... LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW OVER WATERS OFF N FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST ARE SHOWING 25 TO 30 KT ALREADY. WILL HOLD ONTO GALE WARNING FOR TODAY IN THE AREA N OF 29N. STRONG SWLY FLOW N OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT EMERGING OFF THE SE COAST...WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEST CAA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE WATERS IN TH NRN BAHAMAS SUN...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO THE N LATE MON AS REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST. LARGE NLY SWELL WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT TOWARD MIDWEEK...AFFECTING MAINLY AREAS N OF 27N. ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING TODAY N OF 29N W OF 72W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN