000 AGXX40 KNHC 010722 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST THU FEB 01 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N93W MOVING TO THE ENE THROUGH THE SE STATES. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW WWD ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE OFF THE TEXAS COAST. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 15 TO 20 KT SLY FLOW OVER NRN GULF WATERS S OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO NEAR 23N98W BY THU EVENING...AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 23N98W. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ERN GULF TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE WRN ATLC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT. WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE HOWEVER ON FRI...ACCOUNTING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE N OF THE FRONT AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR PUSHES INTO NRN GULF WATERS SAT...THEN PLUNGE INTO THE SRN GULF SUN. EXTENDED RANGE MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW GALE CONDITIONS OVER SW GULF SAT NIGHT INTO SUN DUE TO CAA AND STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E INTO THE WRN ATLC. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOW FRESH ELY S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE ONLY MODERATE TRADES PERSIST. THE ENHANCED FLOW NEAR THE YUCATAN IS THE RESULT OF A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES EMERGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINAS. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TODAY OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING LOW MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. LARGE ELY SWELL WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF UP TO 14 FT OFF COLOMBIA...AND TO 10 FT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SAT MORNING...CHANGING LITTLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC... THE BIG WEATHER MAKER WILL BE LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. SLY WINDS...REACHING GALE FORCE OF N FLORIDA...WILL PRECEDE THE DEEPENING LOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...ENHANCED BY A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE E. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT OFF THE SE COAST...EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO 26N80W BY SAT MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FRI INTO SAT AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...A STRONG REINFORCING FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS OFF N FLORIDA LATE SAT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW NLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 24N...INCLUDING THE NRN BAHAMAS...SUN INTO MON. THE FRONT WILL SAG S...AND EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO 26N80W MIDDAY SAT...THEN FROM 31N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS MIDDAY SUN...THEN STALL MON FROM 28N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ATLANTIC... GALE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI N OF 29N W OF 72W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN