000 AGXX40 KNHC 310740 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST WED JAN 31 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS DEFINITIVELY SHOWED A VERY WEAK 1016 MB LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ANALYZED AT 06Z TO BE NEAR 25N91W. THE QUIKSCAT...ALONG WITH RECENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS...MODERATE TO FRESH NELY FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND 1030 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OBSERVATIONS ALSO HINT THAT AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WEAK WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE CURRENT LOW WILL LIKELY OPEN INTO A TROUGH THIS MORNING AND SHIFT E. LOOKING ALOFT HOWEVER...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DIG THROUGH THE ROCKIES...OPENING UP A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SW...AND SHIFT EWD TODAY. THIS WILL GENERATE A DEEPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT WILL EMERGE INTO WRN GULF WATERS TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE N MOVES INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND BRING FRESH TO STRONG SLY FLOW OVER GULF WATERS. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT FROM LOUISIANA TO PANHANDLE FLORIDA BY LATE THU. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THE WRN GULF THU NIGHT AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES S. WEAK PRES PATTERN RETURNS FRI...ALTHOUGH CAA MAY KEEP WINDS AND SEAS UP A LITTLE. MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD AIR ENTERS NRN GULF WATERS SAT BEHIND REINFORCING FRONT...INDUCING FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS AGAIN OVER NRN WATERS SAT...SPREADING INTO SRN GULF WATERS BY SUN. GFS IS SHOWING POTENTIAL GALE CONDITIONS ON SUN IN SW GULF WATERS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. ALTHOUGH GFS ENSEMBLE ARE STILL WEAKER...LATEST GFS RUNS ARE MORE CONSISTENT. WILL MENTION GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RESULT. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... QUIKSCAT DATA ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY 20 TO 25 KT ELY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. TRADE WINDS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN TO INCLUDE THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS STARTING THU IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE N. SEAS WILL BE THE HIGHEST ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST...WHERE COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF UP TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SAT INTO SUN AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF. SW N ATLC.... PRE FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED EMERGING OFF THE SE COAST THIS MORNING...FROM 31N76W TO 28N81W. ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WERE NOTED ON EVENING QUIKSCAT FOR ALL BUT SRN BAHAMAS WHERE FRESH TRADES WERE NOTED. SWELL HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH HOWEVER...WITH UP TO 11 FT REPORTED W OF 75W. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY HOWEVER OVER NRN WATERS AS CAA ADVECTION BRIEFLY SPILLS INTO THE AREA AS FRONT STALL FROM 31N65W TO 28N72W TO 30N81W. STRONGER RETURN FLOW EXPECTED STARTING THU AS FRONT SHIFTS N AHEAD OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT EMERGING OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO 28N81W BY MIDDAY FRI THEN STALL NEAR 31N69W TO 27N81W BY MIDDAY SAT. A REINFORCING SHOT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SAT...INCREASING NLY WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW OF THE FRONT BY LATE SUN. WARNINGS ATLANTIC... GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THU OR FRI N OF 29N E OF COLD FRONT...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN OVER SW GULF S OF 22N...GMZ082. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN