000 AGXX40 KNHC 301845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 142 PM EST TUE JAN 30 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK RIDGING AND LOW PRESS 1018 MB NEAR 25N95W WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH A FRONT CURRENTLY OVER E-TEXAS INTO THE NRN GULF TONIGHT AND FRESHEN NE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM W-CENTRAL FL TO 29N90W-29N97W BY LATE WED WITH NE WINDS VEERING TO E-SE N OF THE FRONT. FRONT MOVES N OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESS TRACKS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH S-SE WINDS OF 20 KT COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF AND VEERING TO S-SW AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE THU. POLAR FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU AND EXTENDS FROM SE LA TO 23N97W BY LATE THU. POLAR FRONT MOVES TO ALONG 26N BY LATE FRI AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES OFF THE UPPER TEXAS/LA COASTS. FRONTAL SYSTEMS MERGE AND EXTEND FROM SW FL THROUGH 25N90W TO 21N97W BY LATE SAT AND FROM SW FL TO YUCATAN BY LATE SUN WITH AN INCREASE IN N-NE WINDS N OF THE FRONT. GIVEN ARCTIC NATURE OF AIRMASS LARGE AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. NWW3 GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO LOW IN THIS CASE AND PLAN TO BUMP UP SEAS TO 10-16 FT BY SUN. WILL NOT MENTION GALE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODEL FCSTS...LOW PROBABILITIES BY THE MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE AS WELL AS RUN TO RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES IN THIS RATHER COMPLEX PATTERN. SW N ATLC.... FRONT FROM 23N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING STATIONARY AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE OVER FL IS BUILDING ACROSS AREAS N OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING...THOUGH 12 FT SEAS STILL INDICATED OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA. W-SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT OVER AREAS N OF 29N W OF 70W TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST EARLY WED. THIS FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY SE AND EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO E-CENTRAL FL BY LATE WED. FRONT LIFTS NWD AND WINDS VEER TO SE-S AND INCREASE TO 25-30 KT LATE THU N OF 28N W OF 73W AND TO GALE FORCE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. GFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE THEIR HIGHEST BTWN 06-12 UTC FRI THEN DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY. WILL KEEP MENTION OF GALES FOR THESE TWO PERIODS GIVEN RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH THIS EVENT. ON FRI POLAR FRONT ENTERS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO 29N81 BY LATE FRI. ARCTIC FRONT MOVES OFF SE COAST EARLY SAT AND FRONTS MERGE ...EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO 27N80W BY LATE SAT. FRONT APPARENTLY STALLS IN THE SAME POSITION SUN WITH ARCTIC AIR PROVIDING N-NE WINDS OF 25 KT N OF THE FRONT FOR SUN AND AS IN THE CASE FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUMP UP NWW3 SEAS GIVEN THE NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AND LATER FCSTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES SHOULD A LOW ACTUALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... RESIDUAL FRONTAL TROUGH OF SORTS EXTENDS FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE HONDURAN COAST IS DRIFTING WWD. BUOY AND SHIP DATA INDICATED ELY WINDS OF 20 KT S OF THIS FEATURE OVER W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS STILL SHOWED ONLY 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADES GRADUALLY INCREASES IN SIZE BEGINNING LATE WED THROUGH FRI OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND EXPANDS TO ENCOMPASS THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE FRI AND SAT CONTINUING INTO SUN. EXPANSION OF TRADES ALLOWS 30 KT WINDS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NWW3 ULTIMATELY BUILDS SEAS TO 14 FT SAT AND SUN OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE INCREASING FETCH LENGTH OF 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE REGION. WARNINGS ATLANTIC... GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THU OR FRI N OF 29N E OF COLD FRONT...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB