000 AGXX40 KNHC 300725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST TUE JAN 30 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRONG 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SURFACE WINDS ARE SHOWING UP ON AVAILABLE SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL...BUT SHORT WAVE ENERGY UPSTREAM IS DIGGING THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN STATES. THIS WILL PUSH OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH TODAY...DEEPENING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THE HIGH PRES OVER THE ERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E AHEAD OF STRONGER AIRMASS TO THE N. NONETHELESS...NET EFFECT OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WRN GULF WILL BE TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND WED. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EMERGE OVER TEXAS BY LATE WED. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO FROM OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE ON THU...AND SHIFT TO THE NE TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM MOBILE BAY TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY LATE THU. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW TO NEAR GALE CONDITIONS BY LATE THU OVER N CNTRL AND ERN GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FRI FROM W TO E ACROSS THE GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND...A STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES INTO NRN GULF WATERS FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY OVER NRN AND WRN GULF WATERS...WITH AT LEAST NEAR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD EXTENDED FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE HONDURAN COAST SEEMS TO HAVE COMPLETELY WASHED OUT WITH ONLY NE WINDS NOTED ON THE EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS. A SHIP REPORTED STRONG NELY WINDS BETWEEN GRAND CAYMAN...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THIS APPEARED TO AGREE WITH THE QUIKSCAT...ALTHOUGH ONLY THE DUBIOUS EDGE OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS. THE STRONGER WINDS ARE IN THE AREA OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...AND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS AS WELL AS SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...WITH THE STANDARD EXCEPTION OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ARE NOTED. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N. OVER THE TROP N ATLC...ONLY MODERATE WIND FLOW FOR NOW...BUT WITH CONTINUED LARGE ELY SWELL. AS WITH CARIBBEAN BASIN...ONLY MODEST INCREASES IN ELY WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH FRESH TO STRONG ELY WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK. SW N ATLC.... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY EXTENDING FROM 30N57W TO S FL HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...STRONGER FRONT REMAINS FROM 31N55W TO WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND THE EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRM FRESH TO STRONG NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WELL UNDER GALE FORCE. WILL ALLOW EXISTING GALE TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO 26N80W BY MIDDAY WED. BIGGER CHANGES ARE IN STORE THU AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF LOW PRES SYSTEM IN SE U.S. SLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY LATE THU AND INTO FRI OVER WATERS N OF 28N...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO SAT AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA. WARNINGS ATLANTIC... GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THU OR FRI N OF 29N E OF COLD FRONT...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN