000 AGXX40 KNHC 291841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EST MON JAN 29 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE E-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING. 14 UTC ALTIMETER OVERPASS AND 15 UTC BUOY DATA ARE WITHIN A FOOT OF NWW3 VALUES THUS NWW3 APPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED WELL. A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IS A PRECURSOR TO A SURFACE LOW FCST TO DEVELOP ON TUE AND INTERACT/MEANDER ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SWD OVER THE NRN WATERS THROUGH WED NIGHT. N/NE WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TUE AND VEER TO THE E ON WED AND WED NIGHT. OUTLOOK...MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW ORGANIZES THU ALONG TX/LA BORDER AND MOVES NE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH BY THU EVENING. PREFER THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GLOBAL MODELS...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/CMC VERSUS THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF LOWER RESOLUTION NOGAPS AND MESOSCALE NAM. NET EFFECT IS AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF THU. COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SWEEPS ACROSS NW GULF LATE THU AND EXTENDS FROM SW COAST OF FL TO 20N96W LATE FRI. REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE ENTERS THE NRN GULF FRI NIGHT AND SWEEPS RAPIDLY SWD TO THE EXTREME SE GULF BY LATE SAT. STRONG CAA AS INDICATED BY 1000-850 THU GRADIENT RESULTS IN N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT...LOCALLY 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. GIVEN THE ARCTIC NATURE OF THE AIRMASS... NWW3 MAY BE UNDERFORECASTING SEA HGHTS AND WILL BUMP UP SEAS 1-2 FT ABOVE THE FCST 8-9 FT VALUES. SW N ATLC.... 1035 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND MORE RECENT SHIP REPORTS OF 35-40 KT WINDS ALONG 31N INDICATED GALES N OF 29N W OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUE. HOWEVER NWP MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN. FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS ALONG 24N TUE. NEXT FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE COAST EARLY WED AND EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO 27N80W BY LATE WED AND STALLS ALONG 26N WED NIGHT. OUTLOOK...SLY WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KT W OF 75W THU REACHING GALE FORCE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI N OF 29N E OF COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST BY THEN. FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO E-CENTRAL FL BY LATE FRI. REINFORCING ARCTIC SURGE MOVES OFF SE COAST OVERNIGHT FRI AND MERGES WITH THE FRONT ON SAT AND EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO FLORIDA STRAITS BY LATE SAT. NW-N WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS IN THE CASE FOR THE GULF ARCTIC NATURE OF AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SEAS RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN NWW3. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 1030 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS STILL SHOWING RATHER BENIGN 15-20 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW 25 KT BARBS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS BEGIN A SLIGHT INCREASE TONIGHT AND TUE WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE LATE WED THROUGH SAT. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC RESIDUAL 10 FT SWELLS REMAIN FROM EARLIER GALE EVENT. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 8 FT BY LATE TUE. WARNINGS ATLANTIC... GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE THU OR FRI N OF 29N E OF COLD FRONT...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB