000
AGXX40 KNHC 290621
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
135 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

INITIAL COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N67W ACROSS NW CUBA 
TO SOUTHERN BELIZE BUT ONLY CONVECTIVE TO THE N OF 27N OVER ATLC 
ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LEADING FRONT BY 200 NM. A SECONDARY 
DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FL BIG BEND TO EXTREME NE OLD 
MEXICO...AND IS EXPECTED TO RACE E AND OVERRUN THE INITIAL FRONT 
WITH A SINGLE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO NW HISPANIOLA 
THEN DIFFUSE TO NICARAGUA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER 
NE TX ATTM WILL MOVE SE TO FL PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND RACE E 
OF BERMUDA LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO 
RACE SE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE SE US COAST TUE NIGHT 
REACHING NEAR BERMUDA WED NIGHT...BUT STALLING ALONG 28N ACROSS 
FL AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS SEVERAL 
FRONTAL WAVE LOWS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO 
WED NIGHT...HOWEVER THE NAM AND NOGAPS BOTH PREFER JUST ONE LOW. 
I WILL GO WITH A SINGLE SURFACE LOW RACING NE TO SOUTHERN MS 
AROUND SUNRISE THU...ON 72 HOURS PROG...TRAILING ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING A PSN FROM 31N74W ACROSS 
CENTRAL FL TO BAY OF CAMPECHE SUNRISE FRI...AND FROM BERMUDA TO 
SE FL THEN STATIONARY ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N SUNRISE 
SAT.       

CURRENT GALE CONDITIONS E OF FRONT OVER ATLC WILL PERSIST 24 
HOURS...6 HOURS LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. GFS AND 
ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SW GALE WINDS OFF NE FL BRIEFLY THU NIGHT. 
BOTH THE 0030Z AND 02Z ALTIMETER PASSES ALIGNED VERY WELL WITH 
NWW3 OVER SW N ATLC AND W CARIBBEAN SO WILL GO WILL GUIDANCE 
WITH VERY LITTLE TWEAKING. GFS BRING BACK 30 KT ALONG NW COAST 
OF COLOMBIA BY SUNRISE TUE. 

ATLANTIC...
GALE WARNING ZONE AMZ080...N OF 28N E OF FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON