000
AGXX40 KNHC 281837
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
135 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
RAPID CHANGES TAKING PLACE THIS PACKAGE AS COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM FT MYERS SWWD TO NE YUCATAN SWEEPS SEWD. REINFORCING FRONT
HOT ON ITS HEELS EXTENDS FROM NEAR MOBILE SWWD TO 25N97W. THE
SECONDARY FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP WITH THE FIRST FRONT WELL E OF 
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MON. HIGH PRESS BUILDS INTO THE AREA MON 
NIGHT AND TUE WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. COMPLEX LOW PRESS 
DEVELOPS OFF TEXAS COAST TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN 
NE/E WINDS TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLY 30 KT N OF LOW/NEW FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY ALONG 27N AND W OF 90W. OUTLOOK...LOW PRESS MOVES TO 
LOUISIANA COAST WED AND NE OF THE AREA EARLY THU VIA THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE DRAGGING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. PREFER 
GFS/RESPECTED ECMWF PLACEMENT OF LOW CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST 
VERSUS NAM/NOGAPS SOLUTION OF A SYSTEM WEAKER AND FURTHER S. 
STRONGEST WINDS ESSENTIALLY N OF THE LOW WITH MODERATE SW WINDS 
S OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. BY FRI FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SWD AND 
EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO 20N96W WITH INCREASING NLY WINDS TO 
20-25 KT AS CAA BECOMES ENTRENCHED.  

SW N ATLC...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO 28N81W. 1100 UTC QUIKSCAT 
PASS AND A MORE RECENT 35 KT WIND REPORT FROM SHIP WZJD NEAR 
31N70W INDICATED GALE CONDITIONS IN SWLY FLOW UNDERWAY N OF 29N 
WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NW 
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS PICKING UP TO 14 FT AT BUOY 41010 
MUCH HIGHER THAN NWW3 NEAR TERM FCSTS. COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD AND 
EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO 25N80W THIS EVENING. REINFORCING 
SURGE/SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPS EWD OVERNIGHT AND MERGES WITH 
EXISTING FRONT ON MON WITH THE MERGED FRONTS EXTENDING FROM 
26N65W TO SE CUBA BY MON EVENING. SECONDARY FRONT USHERS IN 
GALES TONIGHT AND EARLY MON N OF 29N. HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN MON 
NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING. BY TUE FRONT STALLS ALONG 
24N/25N WITH RESIDUAL HIGH SEAS E OF 70W. OUTLOOK...FAST AND 
ACTIVE SWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PRESENTS TIMING PROBLEMS 
WITH REGARD TO SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES THUS 
FCST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL THIS PACKAGE. FOR NOW NEXT FRONT 
SWEEPS INTO THE AREA EARLY WED AND EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO 
E-CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE MUCH WEAKER THAN CURRENT 
FRONT WITH ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20-25 KT WNW WINDS THEN MARKED 
VEERING OF WINDS LATE WED. ON THU SW WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 KT 
N OF 26N/27N AS LOW PRESS MOVES BY TO THE N OF THE AREA. THIS 
LOW USHERS IN YET A THIRD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON 
FRI WITH SWLY WINDS SPREADING E OVER ALL AREAS N OF 26N. WINDS 
SHIFT TO THE NW AT 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.  

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
1056 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS TILL SHOWED MODEST TRADE WINDS OVER 
TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WITH THE USUAL AREA OF 25 KT WINDS 
ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. CHANGES IN STORE AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS 
TO THE N AND ALLOWS TRADES TO INCREASE MON NIGHT THROUGH FRI. 
SEVERAL SHIP REPORTS OF 10-11 FT SEAS VERIFY EXISTENCE OF 
HIGH SEAS OVER THE N PORTION OF TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. SEAS WILL 
BEGIN SUBSIDING LATE MON. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL THIS EVENING AND EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE 
LATER TONIGHT AND MON...THEN DISSIPATES TUE. FRESHENING NE WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED N OF THE FRONT. 


ATLANTIC...
GALE WARNING ZONE AMZ080...N OF 28N E OF FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER COBB