000 AGXX40 KNHC 271814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 115 PM EST SAT JAN 27 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND AS OF 15 UTC WAS CENTERED 90 NM SE OF GALVESTON MOVING TWD THE LOUISIANA COAST. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE LOW TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TX. LOW WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG THE GULF COAST AND EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY SEWD AND EXITS THE GULF DURING THE DAY SUN. AS LOW CRANKS UP SLY WINDS PICK UP TO 20-30 KT TONIGHT AND SUN WITH WINDS SHIFTING BRIEFLY TO NW 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS IS ALONE ON CRANKING OUT GALES WITH THE LOW TONIGHT BUT DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE GFS...ITS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE IN ANY CONVECTIVE AREAS. SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE SUN KEEPS NW-N WINDS GOING LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT E OF 90W. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AND VEERING TO THE NE AND E. OUTLOOK...NEW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF TEXAS TUE AND SLIDES ESEWD THROUGH WED WHILE WEAKENING. INITIAL AREA OF NE WINDS OF 25-30+ KT NW OF THE LOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES TO 15-20 KT WED. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN ALONE IN DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF GALES OVER THE NW GULF. WILL NOT BUY INTO THIS SOLUTION YET NOR MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES. ON THU...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN CONUS MOVES EWD WED AND ALLOWS WINDS TO VEER TO THE E AND SE ALL AREAS. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES CURRENTLY NEAR 29N75W SHIFTS EWD AND ALLOWS SE TO S WINDS TO PICK UP THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MOVES INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH WINDS PICKING UP TO GALE FORCE N OF 29N E OF THE LOW/FRONT AT THAT TIME. COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY EWD AND EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO 23N79W BY LATE SUN AND FROM 25N65W TO HISPANIOLA BY LATE MON AND OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. MODERATE TO HIGH GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER PROBABILITIES OF 34 KT WINDS LENDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR GALES E OF THE FRONT BEGINNING 12Z SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...AND FOR ANOTHER AREA OF GALES IN STRONG NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NWW3 SEAS BUILD TO 16-17 FT ALONG THE FAR NRN PART OF THE FCST AREA...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS IN PREVIOUS EVENTS. WINDS RAPIDLY SUBSIDE MON NIGHT ALL AREAS. OUTLOOK...WSW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN OVER FAR N PORTION OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY WED AND EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO E-CENTRAL FL BY LATE EWD. WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE FL COAST WED NIGHT AND SLIDES ALONG WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THU ALONG 25N/26N WITH AN INCREASE IN SWLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT S OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N85W. 1122 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL PATTERN UNTIL NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN NIGHT AND EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE LATE MON AND STALLS IN THE SAME AREA MON NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS PICK UP TO 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT MON. OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESS BUILDS N OF THE AREA MON NIGHT AND ALLOWS TRADES TO INCREASE 20-25 KT S OF 16N AND TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH WED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FAIRLY FAR S IN THE SW ATLC WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH SO THAT TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN DECREASE MARKEDLY THU. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING...N OF 29N E OF FRONT SUN. GALE EXPECTED...N OF 29N E OF FRONT SUN NIGHT AND N OF 29N W OF FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB