000 AGXX40 KNHC 231805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 23 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVELS... LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE ANTILLES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN SOME AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WESTERLIES WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF 25N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SOUTH TO NORTH OF 20N THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN CHANGE LITTLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES PASS EAST TO WEST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NONE EXTENDING SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SURFACE... COLD FRONT 31N62W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ASSOCIATED WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR MORE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEVELOPING WARM FRONT IN THE GULF NEAR 25N WITH TROUGH SOUTH ALONG 95W. HIGH BUILD OVER TEXAS WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE GULF WEST OF 90W. ON WEDNESDAY WEAK HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE ATLANTIC AREA WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING SOUTH OF 25N. IN THE GULF HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL BE REINFORCED WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE GULF NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE IN THE WEST GULF WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. IN THE ATLANTIC DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF 31N WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY EAST OF A NEW COLD FRONT. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR MORE WILL BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF 24N. WINDS IN THE GULF WILL BECOME LIGHTER FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE STRONG WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST OF 65W SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVE SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC AREA SATURDAY WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. GFS DEVELOPS A LOW IN THE EAST GULF SUNDAY AND MOVES IT ACROSS FLORIDA TO NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY. SECOND MODEL RUN TO FORECAST AND WILL PUT IN LOW BUT NOT MAKE IT AS STRONG AS THE GFS WHICH HAS GALES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. COLD FRONT MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY AND BY LATE SUNDAY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WILL BE LITTLE AFFECTED BY THE SYSTEMS NORTH OF 25N. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THURSDAY BUT NOT PUSH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN 20N. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN SOME THEN INCREASE ON SUNDAY. TRADES IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL BE LESS THAN NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MORE NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ080 AND GMZ082 WEDNESDAY GALE WARNING. FORECASTER LL