000 AGXX40 KNHC 151619 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1115 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA RIDGES W ALONG 31N TO SOUTHERN MS WITH GRADIENT STILL SUPPORTING BRISK ELY FLOW ACROSS ALL WATERS E OF COLD FRONT OVER NW GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ALONG COLOMBIAN COAST HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH LATEST HI RES QSCAT SHOWING 35 KT VECTORS. THEREFORE I POSTED IMMEDIATE MINIMAL GALE WARNING ENDING AROUND SUNSET TUE. LATEST GFS NOW SHOWING 35 KT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR DOMINATES DISCUSSION AREA EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING FRONT OVER NW GULF...AN EMBEDDED SCREAMING EAGLE NOTED ON YESTERDAYS VISIBLE E OF BAHAMAS HAS RACED W AND MOVED ON FL E COAST S OF 28N ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT RAIN. LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS ARE STRONGER WITH HANDLING OF CURRENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. I EXPANDED GULF OF MEXICO GALE...AND ASSOCIATED HIGHER SEAS...TO INCLUDE NW GULF ZONE S OF 27N BEGINNING LATE TUE AND LASTING TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL FAVOR THE COLD FRONT LEAVING A STATIONARY SEGMENT OVER THE SW GULF...THE GUIDANCE NO LONGER MAKES A BIG DEAL OUT A FRONTAL WAVE LOW AND CONVECTIVE WARM FRONT MOVING BACK N...AND IN TURN DRAGGING A NEW FRONT INTO THE GULF. THE CURRENT THINKING IS A PERSISTENT N-S REMNANT TROUGH ALONG 94W THROUGH OUTLOOK PERIOD. THIS IN TURN WILL CAUSE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS ONLY NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH WINDS REMAINING NLY AND INCREASING BEHIND A DRY SURGE. WITH NW FLOW OVER EXTREME SW GULF WATERS THE SEAS HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG MEXICAN COAST WITH ANOTHER MINIMAL GALE POSSIBLE LATE SAT. SW ATLC...I INCREASED SLY FLOW TO MAX OF 30 KT AHEAD OF SECOND FRONT NE WATERS IN OUTLOOK PERIOD. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE TWEAKED EVEN HIGHER TO MINIMAL GALE ON DAY 5 IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES. FL STRAITS AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...ELY FLOW OF 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5-8 FT WILL BECOME ENE 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOSTLY 10 KT TUE WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT. THIS WILL ALLOW ABOUT A 30 HOUR WINDOW FOR FISHING FLEET HELD UP IN SOUTHERN FL PORTS TO MAKE IT TO NE MEXICO BEFORE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING AMZ084 AND AMZ086 THROUGH TUE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE WARNING GMZ082 AND CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ080 EARLY TUE NIGHT. FORECASTER NELSON