000 AGXX40 KNHC 150628 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION TONIGHT. THE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER S FL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY SINKING MID LEVEL ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 60W AND 95W. A PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN CARIB AND HAS IMPORTED IT'S OWN DRY AIR ALOFT. SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES REMAINS QUITE STRONG TONIGHT WITH A SWLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND NW GULF. A SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH IS DROPPING SE OVER THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 1030 MB HIGH..THE OLD POLAR HIGH..IS CENTERED NEAR 33N63W AND CONTNUES TO PUMP A MODERATE TO FRESH E AND NE FLOW S OF 27N. A COLD FRONT OVER SE TX IS STALLED FOR NOW UNDER THE STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE REFUSING TO BUDGE. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER PLAINS HEADS SE AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT ALOFT OVER THE SRN US. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT OVER TX BEGINS MOVING SE OVER THE NW GULF WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. THE OLD POLAR HIGH NOW 1028 MB MOVES E TO 32N52W WITH WINDS DECREASING W OF 70W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG E OF 80W. FOR DAY 2 WITH THE RELENTLESS PACKING OF THE GRADIENT OVER THE SE US AS THE SHORTWAVE HEADS SE..THE RIDGE FINALLY FLATTENS OUT BUT REMAINS ORIENTED ENE TO WSW FROM THE SRN GULF TO 32N40W. A MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGS ON FROM THE NE CARIB ENE TO THE CANARIES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON PUMPING NLY WINDS OF GALE FORCE SWD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW GULF..THEREFORE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. STILL IS PUZZLING HOW THIS MUCH COLD AIR CAN MOVE THIS FAR S GIVEN THE STRONG SWLY FLOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. I GUESS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE PLAINS IS LARGE ENOUGH THAT EVEN A SHALLOW LAYER SURVIVES UNDER THIS FLOW. THE OLD POLAR HIGH MOVES E TO NEAR 32N42W STILL MAINTAINING GUSTY ELY TRADES S OF 25N E OF 65W AND OVER THE CARIB. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST..THE GULF RIDGE BUILDS NWD ALONG 90W. A NEW SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THE OLD MID LEVEL TROUGH HANGS ON FROM THE ERN CARIB TO S OF THE CANARIES WHILE A MID LEVEL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR 30N40W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE COLD FRONT WASTES NO TIME MOVING E AND SE TO NEAR 31N64W BACK TO THE FL STRAITS. GULF WINDS REMAIN NELY AND GUSTY TO 25 KT. NW CARIB WINDS SHIFT TO NE AND INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT. ATLC WINDS E OF 70W DECREASE AS THE OLD POLAR HIGH MAKES IT'S EXIT E OF 40W. FOR DAY 4 THE MID LEVEL FLOW RESUMES A STRONG WLY COMPONENT..SO PREVELENT THIS WINTER SEASON. THE MID ROCKIES SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WRN MIDWEST BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WON'T AFFECT OUR AREA. THE GULF MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ON OVER THE SRN GULF WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 25N22W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 WHATS LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT HEADS E OVER THE ATLC TO NEAR 31N48W TO 20N70W. THE AIRMASS FOLLOWING THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE ATLC TO NEAR 35N66W WITH SURFACE TROUGHING DEVLOPING W OF THE AIRMASS ALONG THE FL E COAST. A SECONDARY HIGH MOVES TO SE TX WITH A WEAK TROUGH DEVLOPING OVER THE SW GULF. GULF WINDS DECREASE TO ELY 10 TO 15 KT. ATLC WINDS W OF THE FRONT REMAIN NE TO E 20 TO 25 KT WHILE CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT. FOR DAY 5 A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR ALOFT DRIVES SE BEHIND THE EMERGING SHORTWAVE AND A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE GREATLAKES. UNFORTUANTLY THIS TO WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS IT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY MOVE EWD. ANYWAY THE OLD MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ON OVER THE NW CARIB SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN BEFORE BUT STILL IN PLACE. MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CARIB WEAKENS AS DOES THE NEW FORMED MID LEVEL RIDGE AND OLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC. THIS IS DUE TO THE WESTERLIES ONCE AGAIN PENETRATING S OF 30N E OF 60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 WHILE THE OLD COLD FRONT OVER THE ATLC DISSIPATE..A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE CONUS WITH WINDS TO 25 KT. A NEW AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE GULF WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY NE 20 KT W OF 70W AND WEAKER E OF 70W. ATLC TRADES E OF 60W MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ082 MON NIGHT INTO WED. FORECASTER RRG