000 AGXX40 KNHC 140602 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A LARGE MOUND OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER S FL AND COVERS THE AREA W OF 60W. ON THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE A STRONG SWLY FLOW PERSISTS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE ERN CARIB NE TO 30N48W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE OLD POLAR HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EWD ALONG 34N WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING BACK TO THE N GULF COAST. GUSTY ELY WINDS CONTINUE S OF 27N TO 25 KT. GULF WINDS 20 TO 25 KT S OF 25N E OF 90W. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIB WORKS IT'S WAY BACK TO 70W. A SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SW BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NW GULF REMAINS SWLY. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. FOR DAY 2 IN THE MID LEVELS A SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPS SE OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND INTERCEPTS THE SHORTWAVE IN THE SRN BRANCH HEADING NE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER S FL FOR A SECOND DAY EXTENDING E TO 45W. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE ERN CARIB NE TO 30N30W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE OLD POLAR HIGH NOW 1027 MB AND CENTERED NEAR 32N55W MAINTAINS AN AXIS BACK ALONG 29N TO THE NE GULF. A COLD FRONT HEADS SE TO THE TX GULF COAST WITH NLY WINDS TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY 20 TO 25 KT E OF 80W. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES SE TO THE OH VALLEY WHILE THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN CONUS BECOMES A LITTLE MORE WSW. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES BACK OVER THE SRN GULF BUT STILL RIDGES ENE TO 32N40W. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH CHANGES LITTLE GENERALLY STUCK IN PLACE FROM THE ERN CARIB TO THE CANARIES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE OLD POLAR HIGH NOW 1026 MB MOVES TO NEAR 30N41W WITH STRONGEST TRADES MAINLY E OF 60W. THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SWD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF GALE CONDITIONS. A 1038 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TX. IT'S STILL A LITTLE PUZZLING HOW SUCH A STRONG COLD AIRMASS WORKS IT'S WAY THAT FAR S WHILE THE MAIN IMPULSE ALOFT REMAINS WELL TO THE N. I GUESS ONE ANSWER IS THE AIRMASS IS QUITE SHALLOW AND SLIDES S OVER THE PLAINS AND DOWN THE MEXICAN GULF COAST WITH LITTLE EFFORT FROM SHEAR MOMENTUM. THE FRONT WORKS IT'S WAY E ALONG THE GULF COAST TO NEAR APPALACHICOLA FL. FOR DAY 4 WHILE THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKS IT'S WAY OFF THE MID ATLC COAST..THE GULF RIDGE BEGINS TO BULGE NWD ALONG 90W. MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES FROM THE ERN CARIB ENE WITH A NEW CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION NOW OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 23N25W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE COLD FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD OVER THE ATLC TO 31N65W BACK TO S CENTRAL FL THEN OVER THE SRN GULF TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE N OF THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OVER THE SRN CONUS. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT AND ATLC TRADES CONFINED TO E OF 50W AND S OF 25N. FOR DAY 5 A MERRY GO ROUND SETS UP IN THE MID LEVELS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDE OVER THE LARGE RIDGE THAT NOW COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. CENTER OF THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE DROPS SE OVER THE MID ATLC INTO THE OLD MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS EXTENDED FROM THE ERN CARIB ENE. THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE ERN ATLC BLOCKED BY A RIDGE TO IT'S E. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES E TO NEAR 31N48W TO 18N62W WITH NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT W OF THE FRONT TO 75W. GULF WINDS RELAX AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. CARIB WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM THE NE AT 20 TO 25 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED GMZ082 MON NIGHT TILL LATE TUE NIGHT. FORECASTER RRG