000
AGXX40 KNHC 130558
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE 
GULF COVERS THE ENTIRE SE CONUS EWD TO 60W. A STRONG SWLY MID 
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NW GULF. MID LEVEL TROUGHING 
EXTENDS E OF 60W TO AN OLD CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE CANARIES THAT IS 
MOVING NE TONIGHT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT AN OLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 31N43W TO NEAR 20N70W. AN OLD POLAR HIGH ALONG 65W N OF THE 
AREA CONTINUES TO PUMP NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT W OF THE FRONT 
WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO 
THE STRONG RIDGE AS DO GULF WINDS.

LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WHILE THE 
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIB WORKS IT'S WAY INTO THE S CENTRAL 
CARIB. A STRONG SWLY SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE 
TO RIDE OVER THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SE GULF. ON THE SURFACE 
LATER DAY 1 THE OLD POLAR HIGH BECOMES MORE ELONGATED E TO W 
ALONG 33N WITH STRONG ELY WINDS CONTINUING E OF 90W. 

FOR DAY 2 LITTLE CHANGE OVER OUR REGION WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE 
HOLDING OVER THE SE GULF AND TROUGHING FROM THE NE CARIB TO 
30N40W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A SLOW DECREASE IN THE STRONG ELY 
WINDS S OF 26N AS THE OLD POLAR HIGH WEAKENS TO 1026 MB NEAR 
32N62W. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MAKES IT'S WAY SE OVER TX. GULF 
WINDS SE 15 TO 20 KT. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SE IN THE NRN BRANCH OF 
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. A STRONG SWLY SRN BRANCH 
CONTINUES OVER THE SRN CONUS WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING 
FIRM OVER THE SE GULF. MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES FROM 20N60W 
TO 32N25W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE TX COLD FRONT PICKS UP STEAM 
AS IT HEADS FOR THE NW GULF COAST WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. 
THIS HAS GOT TO BE SHALLOW COLD AIR SINCE THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS 
TO THE N AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER TX REMAINS SWLY. THE OLD 
POLAR HIGH SLIDES EWD TO 55W WITH MODERATE ELY TRADES E OF 70W 
AND OVER THE CARIB E OF 80W. 

FOR DAY 4 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS OUT OVER THE SE GULF 
EXTENDING ENE TO 32N40W WHILE THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS 
SE TO THE OH VALLEY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN CONUS 
REMAINS WSW. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE 
NW GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. THE OLD 
POLAR HIGH CONTINUES EWD TO 30N40W WITH MODERATE TRADES E OF 70W 
S OF 23N AND OVER THE CARIB E OF 80W.

FOR DAY 5 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SE TO THE MID ATLC 
COAST WHILE THE FLOW OVER THE SRN CONUS BECOMES MORE WLY. THE 
OLD RIDGE FLATTENED BY THE STRONG WLY FLOW NOW RESIDES OVER THE 
SRN GULF. MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES FROM THE ERN CARIB E 
ALONG 20N TO THE AFRICAN COAST. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE COLD 
FRONT MOVES TO THE SE GULF AND NW BAHAMAS AS HIGH PRESSURE 
CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SRN PLAINS. N TO NE WINDS 25 TO 30 
KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WITH ATLC WINDS INCREASING TO 25 
KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE OLD POLAR RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA E OF 
40W WITH TRADES MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE. EVEN CARIB WINDS 
FINALLY RELAX A LITTLE BUT STILL REMAIN 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL 
SECTION.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG