000 AGXX40 KNHC 120611 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST FRI JAN 12 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. TWO STRONG FEATURES DOMINATE THE MID LEVEL SCENE TONIGHT. A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDS E TO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A STRONG CLOSED OFF MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC NEAR 28N24W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SCENE. THE ATLC RIDGE E OF 50W AND A POLAR HIGH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. A WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. WITHIN 300 NM NW OF THE FRONT S OF 27N NE WINDS TO 30 KT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. SOME SHIPS REPORTING 35 TO 40 KT BUT THAT MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH. QUIKSCAT AND SSMI SHOW 25 TO 30 KT. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE BASIC MID LEVEL FEATURES. A STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO WORK IT'S WAY INTO THE NW GULF. TROUGHING WORKS IT'S WAY INTO THE ERN CARIB. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A FAIRLY STRONG POLAR HIGH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY E WITH A GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE REGION E OF 90W TO THE OLD FRONT THAT MOVES TO NEAR 31N47W 20N70W. FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IT'S OWN OVER THE SE GULF WHILE MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE ERN CARIB TO THE MID ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 SOME WEAKENING OF THE OLD POLAR HIGH AS IT MOVES EWD. WINDS OVER THE ATLC W OF 60W AND CARIB AND ERN GULF BEGIN TO DIMINISH BUT STILL REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT. SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP W OF 90W AS PRESSURE FALL OVER TX. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 A STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW A MID LEVELS CONTINUES TO WORK ON THE STATIONARY RIDGE THAT CLINGS TO THE SE GULF. TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CARIB LIFTS NE TO 50W AND THE OLD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC DISSIPATES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE OLD POLAR HIGH BECOMES ELONGATED E/W ALONG 32N AND SLOWLY MODIFIES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE ATLC. A MODERATE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE S OF 27N AND ELY WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE N OF 20N AND E OF 90W. CARIB WINDS SLIGHTLY HIGHER S AND NW PORTION. RETURN SLY FLOW OVER THE NW GULF AT 20 KT. FOR DAY 4 A STRONG SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS PERSISTS AS THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES MOVE ENE ACROSS MEXICO AND HEAD TO THE MID ATLC COAST. A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPS SE OVER THE NRN PLAINS IN THE NRN BRANCH. THE OLD MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SE GULF RIDGING ENE TO 33N45W. TROUGHING CONTINUES FROM THE ERN CARIB ENE TO 33N30W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE OLD POLAR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EWD ALONG 31N WITH THE GRADIENT RELAXING OVER THE ATLC N OF 23N. ERN GULF WINDS RELAX TO 10 TO 15 KT. A NEW COLD FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE TX COAST WITH WINDS OF 20 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT CENTRAL PORTION. FOR DAY 5 THE SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH DROPS SE OVER THE MIDWEST BUT THE STRONG SWLY FLOW IN THE SRN BRANCH IS RELENTLESS..THUS WHAT COLD AIR HEADS S BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF WILL BE SHALLOW. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE STRONG SWLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ELONGATED ENE TO WSW BUT STILL CENTERED OVER 23N80W. MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES FROM THE ERN CARIB ENE TO THE CANARIES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH NLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. THE OLD POLAR HIGH MOVES TO NEAR 31N41W WITH ELY TRADES OF 20 KT CONFINED TO S OF 23N E OF 75W. CARIB WINDS BEGIN TO FINALLY RELAX SOME AS THE RIDGE MOVES EWD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG