000
AGXX40 KNHC 110614
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

STRONG WESTERLIES HAVE RETURNED TONIGHT OVER THE CONUS WITH 
WHATS LEFT OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE MAKING IT'S WAY EWD ALONG 60W N 
OF THE REGION. A CUTOFF RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 35N36W WITH A 
CLOSED LOW ALOFT NEAR 30N22W. A FLAT RIDGE AT MID LEVELS LIES 
OVER THE WRN CARIB AND SRN GULF. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N60W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WHERE IT BECOMES 
STATIONARY TO NE HONDURAS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION 
WITH THE ATLC RIDGE E OF 55W AND A POLAR HIGH ALONG THE SE 
COAST. GUSTY WINDS TO 25 TO 30 KT AREA AFFECTING THE CARIB AND 
ATLC WATERS W OF THE FRONT. GULF WINDS TONIGHT MOSTLY 20 TO 25 
KT E OF 90W. 

LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR MID LEVEL HEIGHTS TO BEGIN FALLING W OF 95W 
AS A NEW SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE 
WESTERLIES. THE CUTOFF RIDGE WEAKENS WHILE THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT 
REMAINS STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE E TO NEAR 31N52W BACK TO NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE. THE 
ATLC RIDGE MOVES E WITH DECREASING ELY TRADES OVER THE ATLC E OF 
60W. W OF THE FRONT NE TO E WINDS REMAIN BRISK AT 25 TO 30 KT E 
OF 85W.

FOR DAY 2 A MID LEVEL RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SRN 
GULF BLOCKING ANY ADVANCE OF COLD AIR FROM THE NRN BRANCH. MID 
LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING E OF 50W WHILE THE CUTOFF LOW 
REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 28N24W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE OLD 
COLD FRONT DISSIPATES ALONG 31N42W TO 20N63W. THE POLAR HIGH 
MOVES E TO 60W N OF THE AREA BUT WINDS OVER THE ATLC W OF THE 
FRONT REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG AT 25 TO 30 KT WITH NE SWELL TO 15 
FT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN GUSTY 20 TO 25 KT AND GULF WINDS 20 KT E 
OF 90W.  

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SRN GULF WHILE 
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUES BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 3 THE OLD POLAR HIGH WEAKENS ALONG 32N AS IT 
MODIFIES OVER THE ATLC WATERS. BUT THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION 
E OF 82W REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AND ELY WINDS CONTINUE AT 20 TO 
25 KT. A RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE W GULF WITH SE WINDS OF 20 
KT. 

FOR DAY 4 WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SRN GULF..A 
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TIGHTENING 
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NW GULF. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE AT 
MID LEVELS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE OLD POLAR HIGH CONTINUES 
WEAKENING SLOWLY AS IT DRIFTS E TO 60W. CONSEQUENTLY ELY TRADES 
DECREASE SOME OVER THE ATLC. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 KT E OF 80W 
WHILE ERN GULF WINDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT. SLY WINDS OF 20 KT 
DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SRN 
PLAINS. 

FOR DAY 5 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN GULF PROVES TOO MUCH 
FOR THE SHORTWAVE AT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS..FORCING IT 
TO MOVE ENE INTO THE OH VALLEY. MID TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE 
ERN ATLC FROM 31N25W SW TO THE ERN CARIB. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 
LOOK FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF AREA WITH NLY 
WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. THE OLD POLAR HIGH CONTINUES EWD TO NEAR 
31N47W MAINTAINING ELY TRADES OF 20 KT E OF 60W. CARIB WINDS 
MOSTLY ELY AT 20 TO 25 KT.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG