000 AGXX40 KNHC 080612 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST MON JAN 8 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE REGION TONIGHT CONTINUES DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIB WITH IT'S AXIS NE TO 33N60W AND A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N52W. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN BRANCH IS DIVING SE OVER THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN GULF. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVING E. A 1031 MB HIGH WAS OVER SRN TX PRODUCING NLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE GULF. THE ATLC RIDGE WAS ALONG 30N EXTENDING W TO 75W. SURFACE TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED ALONG 60W IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALLING OVER THE NRN GULF AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGS EWD TOWARD THE E COAST. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RECEDES OVER THE SRN GULF WHILE STILL MAINTAINING A RIDGE AXIS TO 33N55W. THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT WEAKENS NEAR 22N57W WHILE NEW TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SE GULF AS A 1029 MB HIGH PLUNGES TO SE TX. WINDS OVER THE GULF REMAIN NLY 20 TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE ATLC RIDGE MOVES E. LOOK FOR INCREASING SW WINDS TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE ATLC N OF 28N W OF 75W. FOR DAY 2 WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF COLD AIR THE TROUGH OVER THE MID WEST CONTINUES TO LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE RECEDES WWD TO S CENTRAL MEXICO WHILE THE OLD CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND HEADS NW TO NEAR 24N62W. A NEW CLOSED RIDGE DEVELOPS NEAR 32N45W WHILE MID LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD TO THE WRN BAHAMAS AND WINDS OVER THE GULF REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG WITH A 1035 MB HIGH OVER ERN TX. NW CARIB WINDS INCREASE AS THE FRONT PENETRATES SLOWLY INTO THAT AREA. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 35N45W UNDER THE STRENGTHENING CLOSED RIDGE ALOFT. ATLC TRADES INCREASE E OF 55W TO 25 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 VERY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT RESUMES PUSHING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD OFF THE E COAST TO 65W. THE STRONG CUTOFF RIDGE HOLDS ON NEAR 35N38W WHILE A STRONG CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 32N18W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD TO 31N62W TO SE BAHAMAS. A WEAKENING POLAR AIRMASS MOVES TO NEAR 34N87W MAINTAINING NE WINDS 20 KT E OF 90W OVER THE GULF. ATLC WINDS W OF THE FRONT REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT AS DO NW CARIB WINDS. ATLC TRADES 20 TO 25 KT E OF 50W. FOR DAY 4 THE STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE SWLY W OF 90W..A PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST TWO MONTHS AT LEAST. A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW CARIB EXTENDING N ALONG 84W. THE CUTOFF RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WEAKENS ABOUT AS FAST AS IT FORMED WITH ONLY A WEAK RIDGE AXIS FROM 25N45W NEWD. THE STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC MOVES TO NEAR 27N24W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE POLAR AIRMASS MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG PRODUCING BRISK NE AND E WINDS W OF 60W TO 25 KT. THE OLD COLD FRONT CONTINUES EWD TO 31N53W 20N65W. RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE GULF W OF 90W AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. CARIB WINDS INCREASE ALL SECTIONS WITH THE STRONG AIRMASS TO THE N. ATLC TRADES RELAX E OF 50W AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. FOR DAY 5 WITH THE STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT RE-EMERGING THE RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIB STRENGTHS. THE NRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ONCE AGAIN CUTOFF AND JUST BARELY BRUSHING THE NRN BORDER OF THE CONUS. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING SLOWLY E OF 70W IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES DROPPING SE OVER THE STRENGTHENED RIDGE. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES ALONG 40W KEEPING THE CUTOFF LOW FROM MOVING W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE STRONG POLAR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GUSTY NE AND E WINDS W OF 60W TO 90W. RETURN FLOW WEAKENS SOME W OF 90W. ATLC TRADES CONTINUE WEAKENING E OF 60W AS THE ATLC RIDGE DISSIPATES UNDER THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG