000
AGXX40 KNHC 071829
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 PM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 21N57W HAS TROUGH EXTENDING 
THROUGH NW VENEZUELA BRINGING COOL DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS INTO 
SW N ATLC REINFORCING SURFACE RIDGE OVER BASIN.  BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO YUCATAN PENINSULA ALSO KEEPS DRY 
AIRMASS OVER MOST OF GULF EXCEPT NW CORNER WHERE DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH IS MAKING ENTRY WITH MOIST SW FLOW UNDER 100+ JET CORE. 

DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS COLD FRONT ENTERING WRN GULF AND 
STRENGTH OF HIGH PRES BEHIND IT WILL CAUSE 20-25 KT WIND AS 
FRONT SWEEPS E.   

AT THE SURFACE...
SW N ATLC
BROAD HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO FAST MOVING COLD FRONT 
NOW OVER GULF OF MEXICO BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON WRN FRINGES OF RIDGE.  AIR MASS TO REMAIN 
DRY TILL COLD FRONT INTRUDES INTO BASIN. 

GULF OF MEXICO WILL EXPERIENCE STRONG N-NE WINDS BEHIND COLD 
FRONT AS HEALTHY RIDGE MAINTAINS TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS MOST OF 
GULF.  COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS BASIN BUT 
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MASS WILL KEEP STRONG WINDS...
SPECIALLY OVER SWRN GULF WHERE SPEEDS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE.

CARIBBEAN WILL BE ONLY IMPROVING REGION AFTER WEEK-LONG STRONG 
ELY WINDS.  AS ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE RETREATS EWD...GRADIENT 
LOOSENS AND WIND SPEEDS AND SE HEIGHT DIMINISH...ONLY TO COME 
BACK WITH A VENGEANCE BY LATE THU AND FRI. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES