000
AGXX40 KNHC 070607
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EST SUN JAN 7 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

TWO LARGE MID LEVEL FEATURES DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT..THE 
OLD RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 22N85W WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING NE TO 
33N60W AND THE CLOSED LOW NEAR 20N55W. A STRONG SW FLOW EXISTS 
AT MID LEVELS TONIGHT OVER THE CONUS. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 
TR0UGH HAS FORMED ALONG 55W BENEATH THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. 
THIS FEATURES SERVES TO MAKE THE WINDS NELY W OF THE TROUGH. A 
FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS STALLED OVER THE NRN GULF TONIGHT WITH LITTLE 
PUSH FROM THE SWLY FLOW ABOVE IT. 

LATER DAY 1 A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE OVER THE CENTRAL 
PLAINS WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE STALLED 
FRONT. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL FEATURES. ON THE 
SURFACE NW WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER 
THE WRN GULF LATER DAY 1. ELY TRADES OF 25 KT E OF 80W OVER THE 
CARIB CONTINUE. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 30N WITH MODERATE 
TRADES S OF 25N.

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS MOVES EWD CARVING 
OUT A TEMPERARY LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. MID LEVEL 
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE SRN GULF EXTENDING NE TO 32N60W. THE 
CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS N TO NEAR 25N58W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A 1030 
MB HIGH MOVES TO SE TX WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE SE 
PORTION OF THE GULF. WINDS REMAIN NLY 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF. 
CARIB WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THE ATLC RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY E. 

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 THE LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ALONG 80W WITH THE 
FLOW TURNING NWLY W OF 85W. A NEW CLOSED MID LEVEL HIGH DEVELOPS 
NEAR 31N45W WHILE THE OLD CUTOFF DISSIPATES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 
3 A 1032 MB HIGH MOVES TO ERN TX MAINTAINING GUSTY NLY WINDS TO 
25 KT OVER THE GULF. CARIB WINDS RELAX EXCEPT FOR THE NW PORTION 
WHERE THE FRONT HAS PENETRATED. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN 
BAHAMAS DAY 3 WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. ATLC TRADES MAINLY E OF 50W 
TO 20 KT. 

FOR DAY 4 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVES OFF THE NE 
US COAST TO 65W WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WLY W OF 
80W. THE CLOSED RIDGE CENTER MOVES E TO NEAR 33N38W. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 4 THE POLAR HIGH OVER ERN TX RACES EWD TO THE S CAR 
COAST WITH WINDS OVER THE GULF BECOMING MORE E AND SE AND 
DECREASING. THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO 31N62W 22N72W WITH WINDS TO 
20 KT. CARIB WINDS 15 TO 20 KT AND ATLC TRADES E OF 50W INCREASE 
SOME TO 20 KT.

FOR DAY 5 A STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER THE ERN ATLC 
AND DROPS SW TO 30N20W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTER HOLDS NEAR 
30N40W WHILE A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NW CARIB 
AND SE GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE POLAR HIGH MOVES E OF THE 
N CAR COAST TO 70W AND REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG..THUS NE AND E 
WINDS W OF 60W INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT. GULF WINDS REMAIN BRISK 
WITH THE RETURN FLOW W OF 90W INCREASING TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS 
INCREASE SOME TO 20 KT E OF 80W WHILE ATLC TRADES E OF 50W 
DECREASE WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG