000 AGXX40 KNHC 050615 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST FRI JAN 5 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG 95W MOVING ENE TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS IS HOLDING IT'S OWN WHILE IT'S RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD OVER FL..A LITTLE BEHIND THE GFS 06Z DEPICTION. FURTHER E A NEW SHORTWAVE ALONG 55W IS DIVING SE INTO THE OLD LARGE TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 1006 MB LOW WAS OVER LA MOVING NE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 22N97W. WINDS E OF THE FRONT CONTINUE SE TO S 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT. A LARGE ATLC RIDGE CENTERED N OF THE REGION ALONG 55W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE SW ATLC AND CARIB. GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIB TONIGHT FOR WINDS TO 35 KT. LATER DAY 1 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ENE TO NEAR 87W IN A STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO 70W WHILE THE MAIN RIDGE CENTER ELONGATES ALONG 20N. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE GULF FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE NE GULF WITH WINDS E OF 90W REMAINING 20 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES TO GIVE THE ENTIRE AREA E OF 80W BRISK ELY WINDS. FOR DAY 2 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO 75W AND RIDES OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS W TO NEAR 22N85W WHILE THE E CENTRAL TROUGH CLOSES OFF TO A CENTER NEAR 22N54W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE ATLC RIDGE RECEDES EWD WHILE MAINTAINING STRONG ELY TRADES E OF 70W OVER THE ATLC. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT E OF 80W. A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE TX GULF COAST. GULF WINDS MOSTLY SLY 10 TO 15 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE OLD SHORTWAVE DISSIPATES AS IT HEADS ENE ALONG 70W. THE RIDGE CENTER MOVES TO 20N90W. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE NWLY W OF 100W AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPS SE OVER THE NWRN MIDWEST. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DRIFTS W TO NEAR 20N56W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT BEGINS TO PRODUCE A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE ALONG 57W WITH WINDS EITHER SIDE BECOMING MORE SE TO NE. THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 30N92W 19N96W DAY 3 WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG E OF 80W. FOR DAY 4 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SHIFTS EWD ALONG 80W WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE N GULF BECOMING W TO NW. THE OLD RIDGE CENTER DRIFTS TO 20N90W WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING ENE TO 33N50W. THE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 20N57W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE ATLC TROUGH DRIFTS W TO NEAR 60W WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SE TO NE WINDS. THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SE GULF WITH A 1029 MB HIGH DROPPING SE TO SRN TX. WINDS OVER THE GULF SHOULD BE 20 KT AND GUSTY. CARIB WINDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. FOR DAY 5 A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG 80W AS SOME COLD AIR MOVES OVER THE GREATLAKES. THE MID LEVEL FLOW W OF 80W BECOMES NWLY. THE OLD MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER YUCATAN WEAKENS WHILE THE RIDGE AXIS CLOSES OFF NEAR 35N40W. THE CUTOFF WEAKENS TO A TROUGH ALONG 22N EXTENDING E FROM 60W TO 25N20W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A 1031 MB HIGH SHIFTS E TO NEAR 33N40W WITH STRENGTHENING ELY WINDS OVER THE ATLC E OF 55W. THE COLD FRONT MOVES E THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS BUT WEAKENS DAY 5. WINDS OVER THE GULF MOSTLY N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT WITH A PRETTY GOOD GRADIENT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY NE 15 KT W OF 80W AND NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT E OF 80W DAY 5. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING AMZ084 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG