000 AGXX40 KNHC 040607 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST THU JAN 4 2007 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDS FROM 55W TO 90W. A CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR 20N40W. A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OVER NE MEXICO/TX BIG BEND AREA MOVING ENE 15 KT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ATLC AREA EXTENDING W TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND NRN CARIB. ELY TRADES CONTINUE QUITE BRISK S OF 23N AT 20 TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS ARE STRONGER ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN PORTION WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. LATER DAY 1 THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ENE TO NEAR 100W WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND CLOSED LOW REMAIN STATIONARY. ON THE SURFACE WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE WRN GULF AND MOVES NE WITH SLY WINDS OF 20 KT E OF 95W. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ENE TO 87W RIDING OVER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS STATONARY. MID LEVEL TROUGHING BROADENS E OF 60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE DOMINENT FEATURE REMAINS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLC WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BRISK ELY TRADES E OF 80W. OVER THE GULF WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SLY 10 TO 15 KT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE EXITS NE. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO 75W. THE STATIONARY RIDGE SLIDES WWD TO THE NW CARIB. THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC CLOSES OFF WITH A CENTER MOVING W TO NEAR 22N55W. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NW GULF AS A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE TX GULF COAST WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. THE STRONG ATLC RIDGE RECEDES EWD SOME BUT ELY TRADES REMAIN BRISK E OF 70W OVER THE ATLC AND CARIB WINDS E OF 80W 20 TO 25 KT. FOR DAY 4 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING WSW TO 20N88W WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING ENE TO 32N60W. THE CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS WWD TO NEAR 20N56W. A STRONG SW FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NRN GULF AND THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TO THE SRN MS VALLEY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WRN GULF WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME ALTHOUGH THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT BEGINS TO PRODUCE A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE ALONG 60W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT E OF 80W. FOR DAY 5 IN THE MID LEVELS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY W OF 90W WHILE THE RIDGE DRIFTS WSW TO NEAR 18N90W WHILE A NEW CENTER BREAKS OFF FROM THE RIDGE AXIS AND FORMS NEAR 33N50W. THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 22N60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 A MODERATELY STRONG SURFACE HIGH 1036 MB DROPS SE INTO SW TX TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TO THE ERN GULF. WINDS INCREASE 25 TO 30 KT W OF THE FRONT. THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG WITH A 1031 MB CENTER NEAR 33N45W BUT TROUGHING ALONG 60W PERSISTS AND WINDS WEAKEN W OF 55W. CARIB WINDS ALSO WEAKEN SOME AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... GALE WARNING AMZ084 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG