000
AGXX40 KNHC 030642
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
140 AM EST WED JAN 3 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ATTM...A CDFNT FROM 31N65W TO NW BAHAMAS BECOMES STNRY ACROSS S 
FL INTO GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N86W TO E BAY OF CAMPECHE. NE 
WINDS IN 15 KT RANGE NW OF FNT ALL WATERS. THE STNRY SEGMENT 
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT N AS A WMFNT OVER FL AND GULF OF MEXICO TODAY 
REACHING THE N GULF COASTAL PLAINS BY SUNRISE THU. CYCLONIC 
TURNING NOTED ATTM ON NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NW OLD MEXICO.
THIS IS LIKELY THE PARENT UPPER CYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO 
TRACK ENE AND DEEPEN TO A SURFACE LOW PRES OVER SE TX LATE 
TONIGHT... AND CONTINUE RAPIDLY NE TO CENTRAL LA BY MIDDAY 
THU...THEN TRACK MOVE NLY TO THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE FRI. 
A NEW...BUT WEAK CDFNT WILL DEVELOP TO THE SW OF THE LOW PRES 
AND INITIALLY RACE E ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO...BUT BEGIN TO 
SLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF WATERS.
 
A MAJOR PART OF THIS SCENARIO IS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE SETTING UP 
OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC. AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE WILL BUILD S OF 
THE WMFNT AND EXTEND SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN GULF 
OF MEXICO BY SUNRISE FRI. THIS RIDGE WILL NOT ONLY BLOCK THE 
EASTERN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...BUT CAUSE IT TO TRACK NE WITH ITS 
EFFECTS ONLY EXTENDING S TO ABOUT 27N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO 
AND PERHAPS ONLY AS FAR S AS 29N OVER N FL AND THE SW N ATLC 
WATERS INTO SAT NIGHT AS IT STALLS ALONG 30N. ANY REMNANTS WILL 
BEGIN TO LIFT N EARLY SUN AS ANOTHER LOW PRES AND CDFNT MOVES TO 
SE TX COAST SAT MORNING. THE SCENARIO REPEATS AGAIN SUN WITH 
THIS NEXT FRONT WITH MODELS INDICATING THAT IT WILL ALSO STALL 
OVER OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE SW ATLC ZONE ACROSS N FL 
AND SE GULF OF MEXICO MON.
           
THE ATLC RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG ELY TRADES ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUING TO SURGE TO 35 
GALE KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS TO 18 FT. 
MODELS BACK OFF ON GRADIENT IN ABOUT 30-36 HOURS SO WILL DROP 
GALE WARNING THU. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
GALE WARNING AMZ084 AND AMZ086.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON