000
AGXX40 KNHC 010611
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 AM EST MON JAN 1 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

LARGE AMPLITUDE FEATURES DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT. A 
TROUGH ALONG 50W CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD AND TWO SHORTWAVES OVER 
THE CENTRAL CONUS ARE PHASING IN TOGETHER. EQUALLY LARGE SCALE 
RIDGES LIE OVER THE EXTREME ERN ATLC NEAR 30N20W AND THE OLD 
STALWORTH RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIB WITH IT'S AXIS NWD ALONG 73W. 
ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NRN WATERS 
ALONG 31N52W 30N60W WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. A SECOND COLD 
FRONT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVING SLOWLY EWD WITH NLY WINDS 
TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG DUE TO A GOOD 
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

LATER DAY 1 THE CENTRAL ATLC MID LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF N OF 
THE REGION BUT CONTINUES TO LOWER HEIGHTS BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. A 
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES E ALONG 85W BRUSHING BY THE NRN GULF. 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ALONG 20N RIDGING N ALONG 70W. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE ATLC COLD FRONT TO MOVE TO 
31N44W 23N48W WITH WINDS DECREASING BUT WITH NW SWELL 9 TO 12 
FT. THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE ERN GULF WITH NLY WINDS TO 
20 KT W OF THE FRONT. CARIB WINDS E OF 80W REMAIN 20 TO 30 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO GET PROGRESSIVE WITH 
THE CENTRAL ATLC CLOSED VORTEX OPENING UP ALONG 40W. THE 
SHORTWAVES OVER THE ERN CONUS WEAKEN AND MOVE E TO 65W. THE MID 
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVER TO THE ERN BAHAMAS WITH IT'S AXIS 
FLATTENING OUT. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING OVER THE NW GULF 
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES E OVER NRN MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY 2 NOT MUCH LEFT OF THE ERN ATLC COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES E OF 
40W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT'S WAY E OF FL N OF 
27N WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. THE FRONT HANGES UP OVER S FL AND BACK 
INTO THE SRN GULF WITH LITTLE PUSH FROM THE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. 
CARIB WINDS CHANGE LITTLE.  

OUTLOOK PERIOD...

FOR DAY 3 MID LEVEL TROUGHING WEAKENS OVER THE ERN ATLC BETWEEN 
30W AND 50W AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPRAWLS OUT ALONG 22N BETWEEN 
50W AND 90W. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALLING SLOWLY OVER THE 
NW GULF AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 
THE OLD FRONT MOVES E TO NEAR 31N60W 26N70W THEN PROBABLY 
DIFFUSE BACK THROUGH THE FL STRAITS TO THE SW GULF WHERE THE GFS 
MODEL SHOWS POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 
25N BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES W OF 90W. 
CARIB WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. 

FOR DAY 4 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NWD ONCE AGAIN ALONG 75W AS 
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE ADVANCES EWD TO 97W. THIS RIDGE BUILDING 
ALLOWS TROUGHING TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP E OF 60W AS NEW 
SHORTWAVES DIVE SE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE OLD COLD FRONT 
FINALLY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 31N50W 25N60W BUT WINDS ON 
IT'S BACK SIDE REMAIN NELY 20 KT. OVER THE GULF CYCLOGENESIS 
TAKES PLACE WITH A LOW RACING NNE INTO NW LA. A WEAK FRONT DROPS 
SE OFF THE TX COAST WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 
ABOUT THE SAME.

FOR DAY 5 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REFUSES TO GIVE GROUND HOLDING 
NEAR 20N80W. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES THE NE GULF AS 
IT BEGINS TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AXIS. MID LEVEL TROUGHING 
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP BETWEEN 25W AND 60W AS WEAK 
SHORWTAVES TRANSPORT SOME COLD AIR SWD. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 AN 
OLD FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DRIFT E ALONG A 31N42W 22N58W LINE. 
WINDS OVER THE ATLC PICK UP AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. THE 
GULF COLD FRONT LOOSES STEAM AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE NE 
GULF WITH DECREASING WINDS. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT S OF 
18N E OF 82W. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER RRG