000 AGXX40 KNHC 310610 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SUN DEC 31 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT A BLOCKING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WRN CARIB EXTENDS N ALONG 80W. A STRONG CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS TRYING TO PENETRATE THE RIDGE AXIS. THE WESTERLIES HAVE PERSISTED IN CARVING OUT A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF MOVING SLOWLY E. STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN E OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SW ATLC CONTINUES TO PUMP A FAIRLY STRONG E AND SE WIND W OF 60W. LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE PLAINS GETS A LITTLE HELP FROM A SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN BRANCH. THE TWO OF THEM TAKE ON THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH NO EXTENDS N ALONG 75W INTO ERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL COLD AIR SPILLS S ALONG 55W TO DEEPEN THE MID ATLC TROUGH. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC PICKS UP STEAM AND BRUSHES THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN 50W AND 60W WITH 20 KT WINDS. THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE E CENTRAL GULF WITH WINDS TO 20 KT ON BOTH SIDES. CARIB WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG TO 25 KT E OF 80W. FOR DAY 2...NEW YEARS DAY...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE GRUDGINGLY MOVES EWD. THE CENTER WILL BE OVER THE SE BAHAMAS WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 65W TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE CUTOFF OPENS UP TO MAKE THE RUN OVER THE RIDGE WITH IT'S BUDDY A SHORTWAVE MOVING E OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A DEEPENING VORTEX FORMS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUES TO LOWER HEIGHTS BETWEEN 30W AND 60W N OF 20N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE ATLC COLD FRONT MOVES TO 42W WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 20 KT. THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY E TO THE ERN GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. CARIB WINDS REMAIN STRONG THANKS TO A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N63W AND A 1007 MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS E OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALLOWING THE TWO SHORTWAVES TO MOVE RAPIDLY E OFF THE NE COAST. THE RIDGE CENTER REMAINS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS HOLDING FIRM BETWEEN 50W AND 90W. THE TROUGH OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC BEGINS TO FEEL THE STRONG WLY FLOW WITH MOST OF IT'S ENERGY SHIFTING E. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE ATLC FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES E OF 40W. THE GULF FRONT MOVES OFF THE NE FL COAST BUT LIES BACK ACROSS CENTRAL FL INTO THE SW GULF. WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF THE FRONT NELY 20 KT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG. FOR DAY 4 NOT MUCH LEFT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC AS THE LAST OF THE ENERGY LIFTS NE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE SE BAHAMAS EXTENDING E TO W BETWEEN 50W AND 90W. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE NW GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 ATLC WINDS N OF 20N MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE UNDER A WEAK GRADIENT. SOME FRONTAL WAVE ACTION OVER THE WRN GULF DAY 4 WITH INCREASING ELY WINDS N OF 25N. ATLC WINDS S OF 20N PICK UP TO 20 KT AND CARIB WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. FOR DAY 5 THE SRN BRANCH PHASES IN WITH THE NRN BRANCH AND THE TWO BEGIN MOVING SHORTWAVES RAPIDLY EWD. A SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE NW GULF DAY 5 WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ALONG 20N. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NW GULF WITH WINDS INCREASING 20 TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG