000 AGXX40 KNHC 300616 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SAT DEC 29 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A STRONG CLOSED MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT MOVING SLOWLY NE. THIS SYSTEM IS LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE NW GULF AND DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW. A MID LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WRN CARIB HAS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 80W TONIGHT. THE WESTERLIES ARE GRADUALLY MAKING THEIR WAY S OVER OUR REGION TONIGHT BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A LARGE HIGH WAS OFF THE N CAR COAST AND DOMINATING THE REGION FROM 50W TO 95W WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. LATER DAY 1 LOOK FOR THE DEEP VORTEX TO MAKE IT'S WAY INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. OTHER FEATURES REMAIN THE SAME. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SE OVER THE NW GULF WITH WEAK WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SE TO S WINDS TO 25 KT WILL PREVAIL. REMAINDER OF THE AREA ABOUT THE SAME. FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG VORTEX MOVES NE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY DAY 2 TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 75W. COLD AIR ALOFT BEGINS MOVING SWD ALONG 55W LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOWERING OF HEIGHTS WILL MAKE IT'S WAY S BETWEEN 50W AND 65W INCREASING THE WINDS N OF 30N. A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF MOVES SLOWLY EWD. WINDS TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE E AND W OF THE FRONT. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MIGRATES NE TO NEAR 24N70W WITH IT'S AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 66W. THE STRONG VORTEX OPENS UP TO A SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY MOVING NE. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALLING BETWEEN 35W AND 55W AS A NEW SHORTWAVE MOVES S. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3..NEW YEARS DAY..THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE ERN PORTION. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MOSTLY TO 20 KT. A 1026MB HIGH MOVES TO NEAR 32N62W MAINTAINING ELY WINDS S OF 23N TO 20 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE CARIB. FOR DAY 4 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE OH VALLEY MOVES OFF THE NE COAST AND WEAKENS WHILE A NEW SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE SRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS TO LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE NW GULF. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NEAR 24N65W WHILE THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC CLOSES OFF NEAR 22N45W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE ERN GULF AND WINDS OVER THE GULF WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO MOSTLY NE 15 TO 20 KT. THE ATLC HIGH CONTINUES EWD OF 60W. ATLC TRADES MOSTLY NE TO E TO 20 KT WHILE CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT. FOR DAY 5 THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY TWO SYSTEMS. THE FIRST THE OLD RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE SECOND ONE THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR 20N45W. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SW PLAINS AND SLOWLY LOWERS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE NW GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE WRN GULF AND NE AND E WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT. THE ATLC HIGH 1025 MB MOVES TO NEAR 28N58W WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRADES. CARIB WINDS INCREASE 20 TO 30 KT OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG