000 AGXX40 KNHC 290550 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST FRI DEC 29 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MID LEVEL PATTERN FAIRLY SIMPLE TONIGHT WITH ONE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIB EXTENDING N AND ANOTHER RIDGE ALONG 20N E OF 60W. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL OVER THE WRN GULF AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES MOVES EWD. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N50W SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION WITH MODERATE E AND SE WINDS. LATER DAY 1 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL SOME ALONG THE NRN BORDER OF THE AREA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES E ALONG 60W. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER W TX AND WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 SURFACE PRESSURES START FALLING OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE SE WINDS OVER THE GULF TO 25 KT. THE ATLC FRONT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH E OF 50W. ATLC WINDS S OF 20N MOSTLY 20 KT AND CARIB WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. FOR DAY 2 THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS CUTS OFF WHILE STILL LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER THE NW GULF. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIB REMAINS STATIONARY WITH AN AXIS N ALONG 80W. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALLING E OF 70W AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 20N WEAKENS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF WITH WINDS OF 20 KT WHILE GUSTY SE WINDS TO 25 KT CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A 1029 MB HIGH OFF THE CAR COAST MOVES TO NEAR 70W MAINTAINING THE STRONG ELY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE NW CARIB WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING N ALONG 80W. MID LEVEL HEIGHT CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG 50W TO 60W AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES SWD. THE STRONG CUTOFF OVER THE SRN PLAINS BEGINS TO MOVE NE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAR COAST REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ABOUT 3 MB. ELY TRADES DIMINISH OVER THE ATLC SOME BUT REMAIN GUSTY TO 25 KT OVER THE CARIB. FOR DAY 4..NEW YEARS DAY..THE MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SWLY OVER THE GULF WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING ALONG 20N W OF 70W. ALONG 50W WEAK SHORTWAVES DROP SWD AND CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE E CENTRAL PORTION WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH PRES OFF THE CAR COAST MOVES E TO NEAR 65W MAINTAINING THE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE CARIB. FOR DAY 5 THE TROUGHING ALONG 50W CLOSES OFF WITH THE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY SW. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 20N W OF 60W HOLDS IN PLACE WITH THE WESTERLIES REMAINING SWLY OVER THE GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES OVER CENTRAL FL BUT EXTENDS BACK OVER THE SRN GULF. GULF WINDS MOSTLY NE TO 20 KT N OF THE FRONT. THE ATLC HIGH STRENGTHENS SOME UNDER THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ELY TRADES PICK UP TO 20 KT S OF 25N. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG