000 AGXX40 KNHC 230603 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST SAT DEC 23 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. MID LEVEL PATTERN TONIGHT DOMINATED BY LARGE SCALE FEATURES. ONE A TROUGH OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 35W AND A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 25N68W. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SWLY W OF 80W AS A NEW SHORTWAVE MOVES ESE ACROSS NRN MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A LARGE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 33N63W EXTENDS SW TO THE FL STRAITS. S OF 25N ELY TRADES CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WAITING FOR THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TO DEVELOP A WAVE AND GET IT MOVING AGAIN. LATER DAY 1 BOTH MID LEVEL PATTERNS HOLD THEIR OWN WHILE ALL THE ACTION MOVES EWD N OF 35N. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES TOWARD SRN TX INCREASING THE SWLY FLOW OVER THE GULF. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE GULF FRONT BEGINS TO ORIENT ITSELF MORE E TO W WITH WINDS INCREASING OVER THE NW PORTION TO 20 KT. SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE SW GULF AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE ATLC RIDGE DRIFTS EWD TO 35N55W MAINTAINING NE AND E TRADES OF 20 KT S OF 22N. FOR DAY 2 ERN ATLC TROUGHING BEGINS TO WORK IT'S WAY SW TO NEAR 10N50W WHICH MAY PRECLUDE A CUTOFF IN A FEW DAYS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR 23N67W. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES TO SE TX. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 LOW PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE NW GULF AND WINDS INCREASE N AND W OF THE LOW TO 25 TO 35 KT WITH THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS. THE ATLC RIDGE CONTINUES EWD TO 35N45W WITH AN AXIS SW TO 27N78W. CARIB WINDS REMAIN 20 TO 25 KT AND ATLC WINDS S OF 20N MOSTLY 20 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3...CHRISTMAS DAY...THE ERN ATLC TROUGH DECIDES TO LIFT NE TO 25W WHILE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM NEAR 23N65W. A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR HEADS S OVER THE PLAINS INTERCEPTING THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE NW GULF AND SENDING IT NE. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 THE COLD AIR ALOFT DESTABLIZES THE NW GULF AND THE SURFACE LOW CRANKS UP TO 1003 MB AS IT RAPIDLY EXITS NE..THEREFORE THE GALE SITUATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. IN IT'S PLACE GUSTY WLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KT N OF 25N WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES TO THE ERN GULF. WINDS OVER THE ATLC W OF 75W INCREASE TO SLY 25 TO 30 KT AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A NEW FRONT APPROACHES THE MID ATLC ALONG 30N E OF 60W WITH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. FOR DAY 4 A LARGE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND HEADS EWD. AS IT DOES IT NUDGES THE STUBBORN RIDGE EWD TO NEAR 25N60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 WINDS OVER THE GULF REMAIN GUSTY TO 25 KT AS A 1026 MB HIGH PLUNGES SWD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE WRN BAHAMAS WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT W OF 68W. THE MID ATLC COLD FRONT MOVES EWD TO 45W MAKING LITTLE SWD MOVEMENT. CARIB AND ATLC S OF 20N WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME. FOR DAY 5 THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG WLY FLOW AND RACES EWD TO 70W. THE MID LEVEL FLOW W OF 70W BECOMES MOSTLY WLY MEANING MOSTLY MILD AIR MOVING INTO THE GULF. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES E TO NEAR 23N55W. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH MAKES A MOVE ON THE ERN ATLC ALONG 26W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THINGS BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF MOVES NE AND WINDS DECREASE TO MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SE BAHAMAS WITH WINDS ALSO DECREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. A 1024 MB HIGH SETS UP OVER THE MID ATLC NEAR 30N46W AND MAINTAINS ELY TRADES TO 20 KT OVER THE ATLC. CARIB WINDS DECREASE SOME TO MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ080 AND 082 GALE DEVELOPING POSSIBLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. FORECASTER RRG