000 AGXX40 KNHC 220608 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST FRI DEC 22 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NE THEN OVER THE BAHAMAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SE OVER THE MID ATLC BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS OVER THE PLAINS MOVING ENE. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 1028 MB HIGH WAS NEAR 32N69W MOVING SLOWLY EWD. GUSTY ELY WINDS TO 25 KT PREVAILED S OF 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 82W AND OVER THE CARIB. A WEAK FRONT WAS OVER THE NW GULF. LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IT'S OWN ALONG 70W WITH A STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF BEGINS MOVING SE WITH WINDS TO 20 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ATLC HIGH MOVES TO NEAR 31N61W WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS. FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN ATLC ALONG 35W S OF 20N. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG 70W WHILE A NEW SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND BEGINS AFFECTING THE NW GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE FRONT OVER THE GULF RUNS OUT OF SUPPORT AS PRESSURES FALL OVER NE MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE. THE ATLC RIDGE MOVES TO NEAR 31N57W WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO NEAR 30N95W AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS ALONG 68W. TROUGHING OVER THE ERN ATLC MOVES TO 30W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE NW GULF MOVING NE WITH STRONG NW WINDS DEVELOPING W OF A COLD FRONT. POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING W OF FRONT S OF 25N. THE ATLC RIDGE MOVES TO 33N45W WITH WINDS DECREASING OVER THE ATLC N OF 20N BUT CHANGING LITTLE S OF 20N. FOR DAY 4 THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF HEADS NE AS A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPS RAPIDLY SE OVER THE PLAINS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE DRIFTS E TO NEAR 25N65W WHILE THE ERN ATLC TROUGH MOVES TO 25W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4...CHRISTMAS DAY...THE LOW HEADS NE OFF THE MID ATLC COAST WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING E ACROSS FL. WINDS TO 25 KT ACCOMPANY THE FRONT BETWEEN 70W AND 90W. WINDS OVER THE GULF W OF 90W DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE MOVES E TO NEAR 31N40W WITH ELY TRADES OF 20 KT HOLDING FIRM S OF 20N AND OVER THE CARIB S OF 18N E OF 78W. FOR DAY 5 MID LEVEL TROUGHING PHASES IN AS IT MOVES OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD AND THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WLY W OF 80W. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD TO NEAR 26N56W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO NEAR 31N70W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. A 1024 MB HIGH MOVES OVER THE N GULF WITH WINDS MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. THE ATLC RIDGE MOVES TO NEAR 28N40W AND MAINTAINS ELY TRADES OF 20 KT S OF 20N. CARIB WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE RIDGE MOVES E. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. POSSIBLE GALE CONDITION W OF FRONT S OF 25N DAY 3. FORECASTER RRG