000 AGXX40 KNHC 190649 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 AM EST TUE DEC 19 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE OPEN ATLC ALONG 31N IS MAINTAINING ELY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. BUOY 42001 AND QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0028 UTC BOTH CONFIRM WINDS ARE RUNNING 5 KT HIGHER THAN THE GFS 10-M WINDS. HIGH PRESS OVER KANSAS WILL SHIFT E AND BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLC TONIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER THE ERN AND NRN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS PICK UP TO 20 KT OVER MOST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF...WITH HIGHER WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SEAS TO 11-12 FT IN COUNTER-CURRENT FLOW. WINDS DROP OFF OVER THE NRN GULF AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU. MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO 2 CAMPS ON THIS FRONT WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND NOGAPS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE AND STRONGER WITH THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRI. INTERESTINGLY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND WEAKER WITH THE NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTION OUT OF RESPECT FOR GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE BEST PERFORMING ECMWF. ALL THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS INDICATE THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF LATE FRI AND SAT AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY SAT EVENING. NE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF BY LATE SAT AS THE LOW ORGANIZES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON SUN AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD AND INTENSIFIES. SW N ATLC... E-W ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 31N IS PRODUCING MAINLY E WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH A BELT OF 15-20 KT EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. WINDS SHIFT WWD LATER TODAY OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS/STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE S/CNTRL US. A COLD FRONT CROSSES 31N WED MORNING WITH BUILDING HIGH PRES QUICKLY INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE ENTIRE ZONE AND WINDS REACHING 20-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HIGH PRES QUICKLY SHIFTING E ON FRI...AND WINDS E OF FLORIDA VEERING TO THE SE AND S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ALL THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NOGAPS DESCRIBED ABOVE AGREE THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO STALLS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE FRI THROUGH SAT WITH S/SWLY WINDS OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE SAT. THE GFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AND FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER WITH COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE MID-ATLC WITH WINDS ONLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE E OF N FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS BEING LIMITED TO JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST AS INDICATED BY THE 2250 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA WED...AND INCREASES WINDS OVER THE NW PART WED AND WED NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS E AND INCREASES WINDS OVER THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS FRI AND SAT WITH BUILDING N SWELLS. REGARDING SEAS E OF THE ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON FNMOC GUIDANCE FOR ATLC SWELLS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB