000 AGXX40 KNHC 181805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON DEC 18 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS EXTENDING E INTO THE ATLC IS MAINTAINING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. A 1204Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 1150Z JASON ALTIMETER PASS BOTH INDICATE THAT WINDS/SEAS ARE RUNNING JUST A TAD HIGHER ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL GULF THAN INDICATED IN GFS AND WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. A SECONDARY HIGH NOW LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA WILL SHIFT E AND REINFORCE THE CAROLINAS HIGH BY TUE NIGHT WITH INCREASING WINDS OVER THE ERN AND NRN GULF. WINDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 25 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH STEEP SEAS BUILDING TO 12/13 FT. THE NRN GULF WINDS DIE OFF RATHER QUICKLY WED INTO THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE TEXAS COAST. THERE ARE STILL SOME STRENGTH/TIMING DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS FRONT. THE 12Z GFS STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WED NIGHT AND ONLY BEGINS PUSHING E INTO THE GULF FRI MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROLLS ACROSS NRN MEXICO. SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS HINT AT SIMILAR PAUSES NEAR THE COAST WITH A DEFINITE EWD PUSH ON FRI. FOR NOW THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS LOOK REASONABLE WITH A SLOW EWD DRIFT ON THU FOLLOWED BY QUICKER MOTION ON FRI. THEREAFTER...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AGAIN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO/S TEXAS ON SAT IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH STRONGER WINDS...AND POSSIBLY LOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... LONG SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 33N IS PRODUCING MAINLY E WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH A BELT OF 15-20 KT EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ON TUE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT W A BIT AND BE CENTERED OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS/STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE S/CNTRL US. A COLD FRONT CROSSES 31N WED MORNING WITH BUILDING HIGH PRES QUICKLY INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE ENTIRE ZONE AND WINDS REACHING 20-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HIGH PRES QUICKLY SHIFTING E ON FRI...AND WINDS E OF FLORIDA VEERING TO THE SE AND S AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DOES NOT APPEAR TO CROSS FLORIDA BY SAT AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT...SO WINDS WILL BE KEPT S/SWLY JUST E OF FLORIDA...AND SE ELSEWHERE. ALSO...THE GFS SOLUTION OF COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS OFF GEORGIA/CAROLINAS APPEARS PRESUMPTUOUS AT THIS POINT (AT LEAST AT THAT STRENGTH) SO WINDS WILL BE KEPT IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE E OF N FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS BEING LIMITED TO JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT UNTIL HIGH PRES BUILD N OF THE AREA WED...AND INCREASES WINDS OVER THE NW PART WED AND WED NIGHT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS E AND INCREASES WINDS OVER THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS FRI AND SAT WITH BUILDING N SWELLS. REGARDING SEAS E OF THE ISLANDS...WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON FNMOC GUIDANCE FOR ATLC SWELLS AS HAVE DONE THE PAST FEW DAYS. BUOY REPORTS FROM THIS MORNING HAD INDICATED THAT EVEN THE FNMOC COULD BE ABOUT FOOT OVERDONE BUT WELL WITHIN REASON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER BERG