000 AGXX40 KNHC 180644 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST MON DEC 18 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES CENTER HAS MOVED OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND ALLOWED WINDS TO VEER TO THE E AND SE OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER THE WINDS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE AS INDICATED BY THE 20 KT WINDS FROM BUOYS 42001 AND 42003. THE ONLY CHANGE THROUGH TUE NIGHT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN ELY WINDS IN THE E GULF TO 20+ KT...MAINLY IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ON WED BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS INCREASES THE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF AND 20-25 KT WINDS SPREAD WWD TO ALONG 90W AND THEN SHRINK BACK TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THU. NWW3 APPEARS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE SEAS FORECAST OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...NONETHELESS 25 KT COUNTER-CURRENT WINDS SHOULD STILL YIELD SEAS OF 13-14 FT LATE WED INTO THU. COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST OVERNIGHT THU...A TAD SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES...UKMET...NAM AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...AND SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND CMC. MODELS MAY BE LATCHING ONTO THE STRENGTH OF THE W ATLC RIDGE. THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF BY LATE FRI AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT AREA OF LOW PRESS DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND ALLOWS THE SURFACE WINDS TO PARALLEL THE FRONT. IN ANY EVENT NLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT QUICKLY VEER TO NE BY LATE FRI. SW N ATLC... WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N65W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND N CENTRAL CUBA. QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBS STILL INDICATE A BAND OF ELY WINDS TO 20 KT LIES JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SIMILAR THROUGH TUE NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE N EARLY WED WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ITSELF AND ALLOWS WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON. NWP MODELS...THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NE WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT...HOWEVER 20-25 KT+ WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED. HIGH PRES MOVES SE ON THU AND SUPPRESSES THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF 28N...ESPECIALLY FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH THEN MOVES E TO BERMUDA ON FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO SE/S W OF 70W...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 2316 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST...THOUGH THE COVERAGE OF WINDS IS NOT AS GREAT AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. NOAA WAVEWATCH CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A 2-3 FT HIGH BIAS AS INDICATED BY BUOY 41000. FNMOC WAVE GUIDANCE REMAINS PREFERRED UNTIL THE AREA OF SEAS ARE FULLY DISSIPATED. HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA AND INCREASES WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. THE HIGHER WIND FIELD THEN SLIDES E TO THE N PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE ON FRI BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO MIGRATING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB