000
AGXX40 KNHC 171830
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
130 PM EST SUN DEC 17 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY SLIDE 
E INTO THE ATLC WATERS WITH THE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO BECOMING E/SE AND GENERALLY IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE 
RANGE. MORNING QUIKSCAT...E GULF BUOY 42003...AND THE SOMBRERO 
KEY C-MAN STATION ALL INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE STILL REACHING 20 
KT OVER THE SE GULF WATERS...SO THE MORNING PACKAGE WAS UPDATED 
TO MIRROR THESE CONDITIONS. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL TUE NIGHT 
WHEN HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N...INCREASING TO 15-20 KT 
ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN GULF WATERS AND TO 25 KT OVER THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA INTO WED. SEAS WILL BE ALLOWED TO BUILD TO 15 FT 
WITHIN THE OPPOSING CURRENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE PUSHED E ON 
THU AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE 12Z GFS RUN 
NEARLY STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF THU/FRI WHEREAS THE GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE ENSEMBLE OF THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS INDICATES 
THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE GULF AND STALL OVER 
THE SW GULF BY FRI. SINCE THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY MODEL WHICH 
STALLS THE FRONT...I PREFER TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER 
MORE PROGRESSIVE MODELS. ASSUMING THIS STRONG PUSH...WINDS 
SHOULD INCREASE OUT OF THE N 10-15 KT ON FRI BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES IN CONTROL OVER THE AREA 
EXCEPT FOR HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COLOMBIAN COAST. 
ONLY CURRENT ISSUE IS THE CONTINUED HIGH BIAS PRESENT IN THE 
WAVEWATCH MODEL. THE WAVEWATCH SHOWS SEAS 8-10 FT E OF THE 
LESSER ANTILLES WHILE BUOY 41100 IS ONLY REPORTING 6 
FT...ROUGHLY A 3 FT HIGH BIAS. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE MORE 
REPRESENTATIVE FNMOC GUIDANCE. DOWN THE ROAD...HIGH PRES BUILDS 
N OF THE AREA AND INCREASES WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 
BEGINNING TUE NIGHT. THE HIGHER WIND FIELD THEN SLIDES E TO THE 
N PART OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO MIGRATING 
HIGH PRES.

SW N ATLC...
THE ENERGETIC PART OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH SLID ACROSS THE AREA 
THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW LOCATED E OF THE ZONE AND HAS LEFT ONLY 
A WEAK SHEAR AXIS FROM 24N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL 
CUBA. A BAND OF WINDS TO 20 KT LIES JUST N OF THIS BOUNDARY AND 
HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL KEEP CONDITIONS SIMILAR THROUGH TUE. THE 
THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE 
AREA FROM THE N EARLY WED ALTHOUGH HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WELL IN 
ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND QUICKLY INCREASES WINDS OVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA BY WED AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES MOVES S ON THU AND 
SUPPRESSES THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF 28N...ESPECIALLY FROM THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA EWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH THEN MOVES E 
TO BERMUDA ON FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO SE/S W OF 70W...ALTHOUGH 
IT REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED IN THE 15-20 
KT RANGE.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER BERG