000
AGXX40 KNHC 170626
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
127 AM EST SUN DEC 17 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL 
TO 27N86W WITH WSR-88D DATA INDICATING SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA S OF 27N INTO THE 
BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS 
MAINTAINING LIGHT/MODERATE E TO SE FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH 
WILL SLIDE E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALLOW WINDS TO RELAX 
SLIGHTLY. OUTLOOK...RE-INFORCING HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE SE 
U.S. BY WED. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE E GULF 
WED. THESE COUNTER-CURRENT WINDS WILL BUILD THE SEAS
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THE NWW3 INDICATES 10 FT SEAS.
GIVEN THE POOR PERFORMANCE OF THE NWW3 IN LAST WEEKS EVENT IT IS 
LIKELY THE SEAS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 15-16 
FT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST OFF THE TEXAS 
COAST BY LATE THU. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH 
THIS FRONT AND ITS ENTRANCE INTO THE GULF MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL 
EARLY FRI.  

SW N ATLC...
COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM 31N61W TO A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 26N69W
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH THE WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONTAL 
SYSTEM IS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFTING IS RESULTING IN A VAST AREA OF 
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE 
CURRENTLY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SLIDES EWD N OF THE AREA AND 
INCREASES ELY GRADIENT AND PRODUCES NE/E WINDS 15-20 KT NE OF 
THE BAHAMAS. OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH 
RE-INFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SWD ON WED AND EXTENDS ALONG 
26N/27N WITH NE WINDS PICKING UP TO 20-25 KT N AND THROUGH THE 
BOUNDARY. BAND OF STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTS S OF 26N BY THU AS THE 
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES CLOSE TO 31N.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA HAS YIELDED SOME AND ACCORDING TO THE 
2200 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAS ALLOWED ELY WINDS TO DROP OFF TO 
10-15 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF 20 
KT. FURTHER W...2345 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A CONTINUATION 
OF THE FRESH/MODERATE ELY TRADES ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THE 
GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT ON MON WITH WINDS DECREASING JUST A BIT. 
NWW3 WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE STILL EXHIBITING A 3-4 FT HIGH BIAS WITH 
THE SWELLS OVER THE ATLC...FRENCH BUOY 41100 IS REPORTING 7 FT 
WITH WAVEWATCH INDICATING 10-11 FT SEAS. FNMOC WAVE WATCH 
GUIDANCE CLOSER TO REALITY AT LEAST IN THIS PORTION OF THE 
ATLC. 

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER COBB