000 AGXX40 KNHC 150600 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST FRI DEC 15 2006 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE EL NINO PATTERN CONTINUES WITH A STRONG SRN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES CROSSING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ENE ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND EXITING NEAR 31N77W TONIGHT. A NEW SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE EXTREME WRN GULF TONIGHT MOVING ENE. A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES OVER THE WRN CARIB EXTENDING E TO 50W. A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W COVERS THE ERN ATLC. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EXTREME NE CORNER OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING GALE CONDITIONS N OF 28N E OF 40W. THE CONDITIONS WILL ABATE AFTER 12Z. THE OLD ARCTIC AIRMASS NOW MUCH MODIFIED DOMINATES THE SW ATLC CENTERED ALONG 50W BUT EXTENDING W TO 75W WITH NE AND E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. CARIB WINDS MOSTLY MODERATE WHILE GULF WINDS LIGHT. LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IT'S OWN OVER THE CARIB FORCING THE SHORTWAVE TO RIDGE OVER IT INTO THE W CENTRAL GULF. A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE GULF SHORTWAVE LATER. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES E OF FL WITH WINDS TO 20 KT FOLLOWED BY A EQUALLY WEAK HIGH THUS GULF WINDS MOSTLY LIGHT. CARIB WINDS WEAKEN TO 15 TO 20 KT AND ATLC WINDS E OF 70W REMAIN MOSTLY 20 KT. FOR DAY 2 THE ERN ATLC TROUGH CLOSES OFF NEAR 32N32W WHILE THE ERN GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE RACES EWD TO 60W WITH LITTLE INTEREST IN THE GULF SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES TO THE ERN GULF. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE OLD ARCTIC AIRMASS FINALLY LOOKS LIKE IT'S GIVING UP THE GHOST ALONG 45W AND ATLC WINDS DECREASE ACCORDINGLY. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WRN BAHAMAS MOVES E TO 31N62W BACK TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 28N. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND CARIB WINDS MOSTLY 15 KT. OUTLOOK PERIOD... FOR DAY 3 THE SHORTWAVE ALONG 60W WELL N OF THE REGION DECIDES IT RATHER INTERACT WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ERN ATLC AND KICK IT OUT TO THE NE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIB BUILDS N OVER THE GULF SQUEEZING THE SHORTWAVE E OF FL AND OVER THE BAHAMAS. ON THE SURFACE DAY 3 MOST OF THE ACTION REMAINS OVER THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE AREA. THE OLD CUTOFF LOW ALOFT DEVELOPS A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES NE OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE ATLC MOVES E TO ALONG 31N50W 23N60W WITH WINDS TO 25 KT. ATLC TRADES S OF 20N THOUGH REMAIN LIGHT. CARIB WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING E OFF THE CAR COAST GETS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT. WINDS W OF 60W MOSTLY NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT. RETURN FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF INCREASES TO 20 KT AS PRESSURE FALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. FOR DAY 4 THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SIMPLIFIES WITH MORE OF A LONG WAVE PATTERN SETTING UP WITH A TROUGH E OF 60W AND A RIDGE W OF 60W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 4 THE OLD COLD FRONT MOVES TO 31N40W 20N42W WITH WINDS OF 20 KT. HIGH PRESSURE 1026 MB MOVING SLOWLY E TO NEAR 31N70W WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS W OF 50W. CARIB WINDS CHANGE LITTLE AS DO GULF WINDS. FOR DAY 5 WEAKENING TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE ERN ATLC AND A STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW N OF 30N WILL KEEP COLD AIR WELL N OF THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE GULF DAY 5 BUT MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN FALLING RAPIDLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND SRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP TROUGH ADVANCING EWD IN THE SRN BRANCH. ON THE SURFACE DAY 5 THE OLD COLD FRONT OVER THE E CENTRAL ATLC BEGINS TO WASH OUT AS IT EXITS E OF 40W. HIGH PRES 1024 MB NEAR 31N70W MAINTAINS MODERATE ELY WINDS S OF 25N W OF 60W TO 90W. RETURN FLOW W OF 90W INCREASES AS A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER TX. CARIB WINDS INCREASE SOME TO 15 TO 20 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... GALE WARNING N OF 28N E OF 40W TIL 12Z. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER RRG