000
AGXX40 KNHC 141853
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
200 PM EST THU DEC 14 2006

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

STRONG MID LEVEL WLY FLOW DOMINATES W OF 55W. A BROAD MID LEVEL 
RIDGE LIES OVER THE WRN CARIB AND BAHAMAS E TO 65W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLC IS RETREATING EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH 
IN THE SE GULF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOW DEVELOPMENT...WITH A WEAK 
LOW FORMING NEAR 24N87W. CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW E OF THE TROUGH 
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 86W.

THIS LOW W OF KEY WEST WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THU
AND FRI. BY FRI NIGHT AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF 
OF MEXICO WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD FRONT OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST WHICH THEN MOVES RAPIDLY EAST SATURDAY WITH THE BULK OF THE 
WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT REMAINING N OF 30N. WINDS 
WILL SHIFT CLOCKWISE FROM E TO SW IN THE SW ATLC FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS. SWELLS GENERATED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE MID ATLC HIGH AND A SURFACE LOW E OF 30W WILL PROPAGATE 
W THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN S FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. CARIB WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT OVER THE ERN PORTION. GULF WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER MUNDELL